HOME & HOUSE
facts, statistiks, price, sales, bild rate
stats:
US Sensus Buro sae USA hav 112 milyun housholds & 128 milyun "housing yunits"
(houses+kondos+townhouses+apartments)
That impli 16 milyun R vakent=12.5%
Nov 2009: 15,950,000 vakant
US hav 75.5 "homeoeners" (if yu pae on a morgage, yer a "oener")
68% av oeners hav a morgage.
14 milyun US homeoners was underwater (Aug 2009)
number housholds go up 1.2 milyun/yeer
1996-2006: USA: bild averaej av 1.7 mil nu houses/yeer
**** hous bubbel:
Total value av "houshold welth" peek at 64.5 Trilyun $ in 2006 (Fed Rezerv)
drop tu 50.7 Tril in spring 2009
Total hous values=23 trilyun in 2006, 16.5 tril in Des 2009
1. hous affordability
****** afford trivia: cheepest plaes tu bi hous=Indianapolis (Nov 2009)
94.5% av yu with median inkum kan afford a median kost hous
Median inkum=68,100$/yeer
Median hous pries=107,000$
****** afford index 1
Nov 2006...US affordability index 1=42.5%
this meen famlee with averaej inkum kan afford tu bi hous
with pries= 42.5 % av median hous pries in US
quarter 3 2007: 42% av houses sold in quarter 3 is biabel tu famlee
with median USA inkum=59,000$/yeer (nashunal Home Bilders index)
NOTE: US guvt sae US median houshold inkum=50,000$/yr (2007)
****** afford index 2
meen hous value/meen inkum av folks hu liv theer
1970-2000: median hous sales pries/meen famlee inkum=2.8
smaller number=cheeper
*** Cheep plaeses
Fort Nox, Kent 0.42
Chinle, Ala 0.52
Lakland AFB, Tex 0.85
Kermit, Tex 0.95
Pekos, Tex 1.04
Borger, Tex 1.17
Freeport, Tex 1.18
Pampa, Tex 1.19
****** afford index 3...% av housholds hu kan afford a median kost hous
selected sitees
*** 20 Nov 2006 (neer peek av the hous bubbel)
% av folks hu liv theer hu kan afford a meen hous
LA Kalif 1.8%
Santa Ana, Kalif 2.6 Indianapolis, Ind 85.9%
Modesto Kalif 4.1 Yungstown, Ohio 85.5
Stokton Kalif 4.8 Detroit Mish 85.5
San Diego, Kalif 4.9 Buffalo NY 82.7
Nu York Sitee 5.1 Grand Rapids, Mis 81.6
Riverside, Kalif 6.7 Dayton Ohio 81.2
San Fran Kalif 6.8 Toledo Ohio 80.5
Fresno Kalif 7.1 Harrisberg,Penn 79.5
Nassau NY 7.9 Akron Ohio 79.5
******* afford index 4...pries tu rent
hous pries=x yeers tu rent similiar hous
number yeers (smaller number=cheeper)
sitee 2008 (Q1) 2000(Q1)
USA 12.5 10.2
Atlanta 17.3 13.6
Austin 19.4 16.7
Boston 20.5 16.2
Dallas 16.6 15.3
Denver 21.5 18.1
Detroit 9.8 11.8
Fenix, Ara 19.0 12.6
====> Honolulu 32.6 21.4
Houston 15.9 13.6
Indianapolis 14.3 14.6
Kleevland 11.4 14.3
Las Vegas 22.7 15.1
Los Angel 20.0 11.5
Miami 22.4 12.4
Nu York Sit 15.6 9.5
Orange Kount 29.9 19.9
palm Beech 24.9 12.4
San Antone 17.8 12.3
San Diego 25.1 18.4
====> San Fran 32.9 25.8 ski hi
====> San Hozae 38.5 25.0
====> Seato 34.9 19.9
St Luis 12.9 13.0
Shekago, Ill 20.8 15.3
Wash DC 22.0 11.1
********* cheep sitees ("affordabel" in krat speek)
***** Mae 2008 hous pries inkum % hu kan afford median hous
Kokomo, Ind 88,000$ 57,400$ 95.3%
Lima, Ohio 80,000 56,900 95.0%
Cumberland, MD 70,000 50,100 93.7%
Lansing, Mish 97,000 62,700 93.0%
Springfeeld, Oh 76,000 54,500 92.6%
Battel Kr, Mish 75,000 54,600 92.0%
Wheeling, WV 79,000 45,800 91.5%
Bae Sitee, Mish 80,000 53,700 90.2%
Indianapolis 106,000 65,100 90.1%
********* hi kost sitees
** Nov 2006 pries HH Inkum % kan afford median hous
Napa, Kalif 585,000$ 75,800$ 3.3%
LA Kalif 515,000 61,700 3.7%
Salinas, Kal 520,000 63,400 4.2%
Santa Ana, Kal 585,000 63,400 4.8%
San Luis Obispo 500,000 64,200 5.7%
San Fran, Kalif 770,000 86,500 7.0%
Wite Planes, NY 525,000 59,500 7.1%
** Mae 2008
Los Angeles, Kalif 412,000$ 59,800 10.5%
Nu York, NY 490,000 63,000 12.5%
San Fran, Kalif 680,000 94,300 12.7%
Salinas, Kalif 393,000 64,800 13.1%
San Luis Obispo, 425,000 67,000 13.8%
Napa, Kalif 449,000 79,600 15.8%
Miami 300,000 49,200 16.5%
Santa Ana, Kalif 470,000 84,100 17.4%
Santa Barbara 380,000 65,200 19.6%
***** trivia: More dogs than kids liv in San Fransisko
Oenlee super-rich kidless yupees kan afford San Fran
afford... late tibits
20 Apr 08: Las Vegas...18.9% av housholds kan afford a median pries hous
3. baelout
("assistance" in krat speek)
see also...loss
July 2010: TARP: guvt garantee 3.7 trilyun $ (up 700 bil from 2009)
most av the 700 bil gotu Fanne+Fredee+FHA
June 2010: US guvt so far spend 2.5 Trilyun $ on baelouts
=8,333$/persun in USA.
01 Apr 2009: estimate: 12.8 Trilyun $...US guvt baelouts & garantees
42,105$/persun in USA (Bloomberg)
(US houshold meen inkum=54,000$ in 2008)
Hous bubbel krash & that bern all big US banks & inshuer kumpanees
23 Des 2008: Amerikan Xpress (kredit kard) baeled-out...3.4 Bilyun $
15 Des 2008: latest ges on how much fed guvt thro awae: 8.8 Trilyun $
3 Okt 2008: Kongres in panik pass law that thro 700 bilyun $ at banks
Law kalled "TARP" (trubeled asset releef program)
sum kall it "no banker left hungree".
or "free munee orgy" (orjee in nonkrat)
or "bungee kord orgy"
11 Nov 2008: So far, Helikopter Ben spend 3.5 Trilyun $ av it
Bael out AIG inshuer kumpanee 3 times so far (153 bilyun $)
Ben & the banks refuze tu sae wot em spend it on.
So far 19 US banks fael in 2008
Latest=Franklin, assets=5.1 bilyun $
25 Nov 2008: so far, guvt kommit tu 8.5 TRILyun $ av baelouts (Bloomberg)
This is more that total av:
NASA spend sins it was formed
+ Marshal plan tu save Yerrop
+ Luisiana bi
+ Korea War
+ Vietnam War
+ Iraq Wars
+ Nu Deel (Depreshun era guvt spend)
+ Savings & Lone debakel (prior bank krisis)
2. behind (late)
"overdue" or "in default" or "deliquent" in krat speek
quarter 1 2010: 9.54% av morgages 90+ daes behind
Wons a lone is 60 daes late, 95% never katch up (Bank take bak hous)
Mar 2010: 7,000,000 housholds R behind on theer morgage (Tresury Dept)
Okt 2009: 14% av morgages R behind
Q3 2009: 6.25% av morgages R 60+ daes behind ("deliquent")
up from 3.96% in 2008
1.9 milyun morgages R 4+ months behind
05 Jun 2008: 6.4% av morgages R behind 1+ paements...bout 3 milyun.
737,000 R 3+ paements behind
see also...default
************* home bilders ****************>
4. home bilders
**** trivia: home bilding was 6% av USA GDP at peek in 2005
Feb 08: 4%
nuz flash...home bilder Lennar luze 1.25 bilyun $ in 2007
KB Homes luze 929 milyun & CEO get 6 Mil bonus for du good job
wunder how big bonus wood be if kumpanee make a profit.
bankrupt:Go bust in 2006-07
Kara Homes (Nu Jersee)
Levitt & sons (Florida)
Nueman (Shekago)
Turner-Dun (Arazona)
Danjer..."analysis" sae bilders mae go bust in 2008:
Beezer, Hovnanian, Standard Pasifik, Tousa, WCI
so-so bilders...flip koin tu see if em liv
D R Horton, Lennar
strong bilders hu shood survive 2007-08 bust:
Centex, KB home, Pulte, Toll Brothers
5. hous bild rate
(home bild rate)
*** nu hous bild rate...www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
***** trivia: Nov 2009: nu hous bild rate down 75.7% from bubbel peek in 2006
"starts"=number houses home bilders start=start on foundashun
1925 900,000
1933 100,000
1935 221,000
1940 603,000
1945 326,000
1950 1,952,000
1955 1,646,000
1960 1,274,000
1965 1,510,000
1970 1,469,000
**
2000 1,568,700
2001 1,636,700
2002 1,747,700
2003 1,889,200
2004 2,070,100
2005 2,068,300
***** resent peek US hous bild rate=1.8 mil in 2006
2006 1,800,700
2007 1,353,000 down 24.8% from 2006
2008 441,000 (prelim, 27 Feb 2009)
hous bild rate tibits
note: USA hav 129 milyun "housing units" (Jan 2008)
& 18.5 milyun vakant
**** resent hi in hous starts=1,700,000 in Apr 2005
resent lo in hous starts= 458,000/yeer in Apr 2009
loest sins 1959 wen guvt start this stuf=down 72.6% from Apr 2005
hous bild rate (sensus buro)
2010 nu hous bild rate
****** July 2010 nu hous bild rate (17 Aug 2010)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
565,000 549,000 587,000
**** starts revised down tu 537,000 (Aug 2010)
lets down 3.7% from 2009
starts down 7.0% from 2009
dun down 25.4% from 2009
singel-famlee let =416,000
singel-famlee start=432,000
singel-famlee dun =490.000
****** June 2010 nu hous bild rate (20 Jul 2010)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
586,000 549,000 886,000
lets down 2.3% from 2009
starts down 5.8% from 2009
dun up 11% from 2009
singel-famlee let =421,000
singel-famlee start=454,000
singel-famlee dun =676.000
****** Mae 2010 nu hous bild rate (20 Jun 2010)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
574,000 578,000 702,000
lets up 11.3% from 2009
starts up 0.2% from 2009
dun down 15.5% from 2009
singel-famlee let =436,000
singel-famlee start=457,000
singel-famlee dun =515.000
****** Feb 2010 nu hous bild rate (27 Mar 2010)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
612,000 575,000 700,000
lets up 11.3% from 2009
starts up 0.2% from 2009
dun down 15.5% from 2009
singel-famlee let =503,000
singel-famlee start=499,000
singel-famlee dun =458.000
****** Jan 2010 nu hous bild rate (27 Feb 2010)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
622,000 611,000 664,000
lets down 7.3% from 2009
singel-famlee let =504,000
singel-famlee start=502,000
singel-famlee dun =439.000
2009 nu hous bild rate
****** Nov 2009 nu hous bild rate (16 Des 2009)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
584,000 574,000 810,000
lets down 7.3% from 2008
starts down 12.4% from 2008
dun down 25.3% from 2008
singel-famlee let =473,000
singel-famlee start=482,000
singel-famlee dun =524.000
****** Okt 2009 nu hous bild rate (18 Nov 2009)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
552,000 529,000 740,000
lets down 25.3% from 2008
starts down 30.7% from 2008
dun down 29.9% from 2008
singel-famlee let =451,000
singel-famlee start=476,000
singel-famlee dun =528.000
****** Sep 2009 nu hous bild rate (20 Okt 2009)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
573,000 590,000 693,000
lets down 28.9% from 2008
starts down 28.2% from 2008
dun down 39.6% from 2008
singel-famlee let =450,000
singel-famlee start=501,000
singel-famlee dun =464.000
****** July 2009 nu hous bild rate (18 Aug 2009)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
560,000 581,000 802,000
lets down 39% from 2008
starts down 37.7% from 2008
dun down 26.4% from 2008
singel-famlee let =458,000
singel-famlee start=490,000
singel-famlee dun =491.000
****** June 2009 nu hous bild rate (17 July 2009)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
563,000 582,000 818,000
lets down 52% from 2008
starts down 46.0% from 2008
dun down 27.7% from 2008
singel-famlee let =430,000
singel-famlee start=470,000
singel-famlee dun =538.000
****** Mae 2009... nu hous bild rate (16 Jun 2009)(Sensus buro)
bild let starts dun
518,000 532,000 811,000
lets down 47% from 2008
starts down 45.2% from 2008
dun down 28.8% from 2008
singel-famlee let =408,000
singel-famlee start=401,000
singel-famlee dun =491.000
****** Apr 2009... nu hous bild rate (19 Mae 2009)(Kommers dept)
bild let starts dun
494,000 458,000 874,000
lets down 50.2% from 2008=rekord lo (50 yeers av data)
starts down 54.2% from 2008=rekord lo
dun down 15.0% from 2008
singel-famlee let =373,000, down 42.4% from 08
(down 77.5% from Jan 2005)
singel-famlee start=368,000, down 45.6% from 08
singel-famlee dun =549,000, down 32.1% from 08
****** Mar 2009... nu hous bild rate (16 Apr 2009)
bild let starts dun
513,000 510,000 824,000
lets down 44.2% from 2008
starts down 48.4% from 2008
dun down 30.9% from 2008
singel-famlee let =361,000
singel-famlee start=358,000
singel-famlee dun =548,000
****** Feb 2009... nu hous bild rate (17 Mar 2009, revised in Apr)
bild let starts dun
547,000 583,000 796,000
lets down 44.2% from 2008
starts down 47.3% from 2008
dun down 41.7% from 2008
singel-famlee let =390,000
singel-famlee start=357,000
singel-famlee dun =524,000
****** Jan 2009... nu hous bild rate (out on 18 Feb 2009)
bild let starts dun
521,000 466,000 776,000
lets down 50.5% from 2008...rekord lo (down 71% from peek)
starts down 56.2% from 2008 rekord lo (down 73% from peek)
dun down 41.7% from 2008
singel-famlee let =335,000
singel-famlee start=347,000
singel-famlee dun =566,000
2008 nu hous bild rate
**** prelim 2008 yeer:starts=904,300 (down 33% from 2007,loest sins 1945)
month bild let starts dun (www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf)
Jan 08 1,048,000 1,071,000 1,351,000 (revised)
Feb 08 978,000 1,065,000 1,208,000
Mar 08 932,000 954,000 1,190,000
Apr 08 982,000 1,008,000 1,014,000 (revised)
Mae 08 969,000 975,000 1,132,000
Jun 08 1,091,000 1,066,000 1,167,000
July 08 937,000 965,000 1,035,000
Aug 08 854,000 895,000 961,000
Sept 08 786,000 817,000 1,043,000
Okt 08 708,000 791,000 1,097,000
Nov 08 616,000 625,000 1,084,000
Des 08 549,000 550,000 1,015,000
2007 bild rate
"bild let"=sumwon get "bilding permit" from lokal guvt
month bild let starts dun bild let starts dun
Jan 07 1,517,000 1,399,000 1,836,000 Jan 06 2,195,000 2,265,000 2,044,000
Feb 07 1,487,000 1,506,000 1,643,000 Feb 06 2,147,000 2,132,000 2,038,000 (Revised)
Mar 07 1,544,000 1,518,000 1,632,000 Mar 06 2,085,000 1,972,000 2,203,000
Apr 07 1,429,000 1,506,000 1,523,000 Apr 06 1,987,000 1,821,000 2,058,000
Mae 07 1,501,000 1,474,000 1,549,000 Mae 06 1,944,000
Jun 07 1,413,000 1,470,000 1,513,000
Jul 07 1,373,000 1,381,000 1,512,000 jul 06 1,774,000 1,746,000 1,944,000
Aug 07 1,322,000 1,327,000 1,516,000
Sep 07 1,261,000 1,193,000 1,409,000 Sep 06 1,654,000 1,746,000 1,944,000
Okt 07 1,170,000 1,229,000 1,436,000 Okt 06 1,560,000 1,470,000 1,919,000
Nov 07 1,152,000 1,187,000 1,344,000 Nov 06 1,527,000 1,565,000 1,885,000
Des 07 1,068,000 1,006,000 1,302,000
see also...nu hous sales rate
**** hous bild rate...singel famlee
United States number "housing units"
-------- started -------- dun bild permits
yeer total 1 famlee
1960 1,252,200 994,700
1970 1,433,600 812,900 1,418,400
1980 1,292,200 852,200 1,501,600
1990 1,192,700 894,800 1,308,000
1995 1,354,100 1,076,200 1,312,600
...
2000 1,568,700 1,230,900 1,573,700 1,592,267
2001 1,602,700 1,273,300 1,570,800 1,636,676
2002 1,704,900 1,358,600 1,648,400 1,747,678
2003 1,847,700 1,499,000 1,678,700 1,889,214
2004 1,955,800 1,610,500 1,841,900 2,070,077
2005 2,068,300 1,715,800 1,931,400 2,155,300
2006 1,800,700 1,463,700 1,978,200 1,833,500
2007 1,353,700 1,045,900 1,500,200 1,376,100
5. hous bubbel pop (krash)
At top av housing bubbel June 2006, value av US "housing stok"=21.5 trilyun $
June 2009: tentative bottom in yuzed hous prieses
****** bubbel...Kase-Shiller, 2008, quarter 3 (july-Sep)
Nashunal index av yuzed hous pries down 21% from peek
hous value down 17.4% from 2007 (20 sitee index)
down 21.8% from peek in July 2006
Kalifornya bubbel peek in April 2007, median hous pries=597,640$
LA peek in Aug 2007 (550,000$)
Sep 2008: Kalif median pries=283,000$, down 34% in 1 yeer
****** bubbel...krash
Subprime morgage default & then forkloes start the krash av the hous bubbel.
Bout 1 tilyun $ av subprime morgages. Next kum 500 bilyun $ av
"option arms"...bier pae less than interest-oenlee... debt tu bank
gro evree month. Then big jump in defaults av prime morgages.
29 Nov 09: 93% av opshun arm borroers yuze the "minimum paement" (S & P)
78% hav yet tu hit the "rekast" point weer yu gotta start tu
pae down wot yu oe the bank.
6. default
(deliquent, past du, "preforkloes actions")
"non-kurrent" in superkrat
yer late with monthly paement on a lone ("delinquency" rate in krat speek)
"in arreers" or "preforeclosure filings" in krat speek
kan be morgage (home lone), kredit kard, student lone...
normally 30+ daes behind for bank tu sae yer in default
Feb 2008: most banks set 60 daes late as "default" or "delinguent"
Mae 2010: default+reposes=322,920 (Reelty Trak)
******* 29 Apr 2010: 7.3 milyun USA morgages R behind ("non-kurrent")
******* Apr 2010: averaej av 417 daes from wen yu stop paements til
bank send out first default notis
Then 1 yr aft that for bank tu take bak the hous
******* histree:
Jan 1934...43.8% av sity houses in default
averaej time in default=15 months
if hav 2nd morgage: 54.4%
*** 2008: morgage defaults up 53% from 2007...4.58% av morgages
Florida=9.52%
Nevada =9.0%
default: tibits=late data
July 2010: average time yu get tu liv free in the hous after
yu default=449 daes=15 months (dont hafta pae rent or morgage)
14% av morgages R in default or forkloes
July 2010: 10% av USA morgages R in default
4.6% R in "forkloes prosses" (Amerikan Bankers Asso)
4.1% av home equity lones R in default
2010 quarter 1: 304,799 default notises (RealtyTrak)
10.4% av US morgages R in default (behind)
Nov 2009: 9.2% av USA morgages R in default or in forkloes proses (Bloomberg)
(outta 51 milyun morgages)
306,627 "notises"
Okt 2009: 332,292 notis av {default or aukshun} (RealtyTrak)
up 19% from 2008
2009, Q3: 6.25% av morgages R 60+ daes late (was 3.96% in 2008)
2009, Q2: 5.81% av morgages R 60+ daes late (was 3.53% in 2008)
13.16% R 1+ months late (morgage bankers)
(inklude 4% in forkloes)
2009, half 1: Las Vegas...7.5% av housholds got default notis (jan thru June)
15 Jul 2009: 36.9% av opshun-arms R 60+ daes late
33.9% av subprime lones R 60+ daes late
Jun 2009: Kalif deault: 9.5% av morgages R behind (1st Am KoreLogik)
Apr 2009: 342,000 got notis av default in April (Reelty Trak)
defaults=8.1% av morgages, up 43% from 2008
quarter 1, 2009: US hous morgage default=7.9% (Federal Rezerv)
=nu hi (Fed rekords go bak tu 1985)
quarter 1, 2009: 9.12% av US morgages R 1+months behind (Bankers Assos)
& 3.85% R in middel av forkloes (sum=13%)
late 90+daes=7.24%
25 Feb 2009: 45% av US hous sales R in "distress" (default or for kloesed)
Feb 2009: 7% av US morgages R in default, up 50% from 08 (Equifax, 27 Feb 08)
subprime: 39.8% in default
Jan 2009: US morgage defaults up 50% from Jan 08 (Equifax, 27 Feb 08)
15 Jan 2009: bout 10% av USA morgages is in default
***** 2008 yeer end (Bloomberg, 5 Mar 2009)
7.88% av morgages R in default, up from 5.82% in 2007
add in forkloes, sum=11.2%
Des 2008: 5.4 milyun housholds R in default or middel av forkloes
8 Des 2008: em hu got a morgage mod (bank loer the monthly paement):
3 months later, 36% default agin
6 months 56%
8 months 58%
Nov 2008: 259,085 "default notis" in Nov 08 (Bloomberg, 11 Des 08)
Nov 2008: 2.8% av US morgages R 3+ months behind (was 1.4% in 2007)
9% av borroers R behind or in forkloes proses
Okt 2008: default filings=166,230 in Okt 08
(default+auction+forkloes)=279,561, up 25% from 2007
Quarter 3 2008 (RealtyTrak, 23 Okt 2008): 765,558 "default notises"
Singel famlee hous:7% av morgages "deliquent" (Morgage Bankers Ass)
3% R in middel av forkloes (10% in default or forkloes)
Sept 2008: 1/475 houses in US got a default notis from bank in Sept
June 2008: 4 milyun Amerikan homeoeners R in default or forkloes
Banks hav 9.9 bilyun $ av houses em took bak from bier (FDIC)
(Morgage Bankers, 5 Sep 08)
=9.2% av morgages (default=6.41%, forkloes=2.75%)
subprime: 21% R in default
Prime ARM:11.3%
quarter 2 2008: forkloes started on 1.08% av morgages (Morgage Bankers Ass)
quarter 2 2008: "notis av default"=739,714...up 121% from 2007
1/171 housholds (RealtyTrak)
Mae 2008: USA prime morgage "deliquency rate"=2.44%, from 1.38% in 2007
jumbo prime morgage=4.03%, from 1.11% in 2007 (Cnn)
quarter 1 2008, "delinquensee rate"=6.35% av morgages (Bankers Assos,05 Jun 2008)
(deliquent...30+ daes late)
=nu hi in data bak tu 1979, up from 5.82% in 2007 Q4
=2.87 milyun lones
late paement=22% (prior hi was 20%)
quarter 4 2007, morgage defaults=2.65% av morgages (Bankers Assos,03 Apr 2008)
=16 yeer hi. (up from 2.23% in 2006)
Kredit Kards: 4.38% R late
Home Equity Lones:2.39% R late
HELOC: 0.96%
25 Mar 2008:Fanny Mae: Jan 08, 1.06% av morgages R 90+ daes late
Behind at Freddee Mak
Jan 2008: 0.71% av morgages
Des 2007: 0.65%
Feb 2007: 0.43%
Feb 2008...alt-a lones:17.4% R in default
subprime: 33.1%
*** trivia: 5.85 milyun subprime morgages in USA (4 Jun 08)
subprime resets tu peek at 7.6% in June 2008
(% interest chaenj from teeser rate tu market rate)
Federal rezerv sae 1.5 milyun subprime ARM's will reset in 2008
*** trivia: opshun ARM resets tu peek in June 2011
Jan 2008...68,950 morgage defaults, up 31% from Jan 2007
Des 2007:
prime lones : 63.1% av lones & 17.6% av defaults
prime ARM : 14.5% 18.7%
subprime ARM: 6.8% 43.0%
5.6% av morgages R in default
1.7% av morgages R in forkloes prosses
quarter 4 2007 default stats (Morgage Bankers Assos sed so on 6 Mar 2008)
5.82% av morgages R 30+ daes late("deliquent")...hiest sins 1985
Mississippi=11%
Mishigan = 8.97%
Jorjya = 8.37%
(5.59% in quarter 3, 4.95% in 2006)
7.86% av morgages R late ("noncurrent" in banker speek)
20% av subprime ARM lones R late
prime ARM lones=5.5% av late paers
*** trivia: 33% spekt tu kut theer spend kauz av "subprime problem"
(Federal Reserv servae, Okt 2007)
***** subprime...
Many sound alarm that wen subprime ARM's reset tu hier rates,
many will defalt & then luze hous. It wont take that long.
Nov 2007: 11.2% av subprime lones made in 2007 R alredy in default.
This is B4 NE reset tu hier interest rate.
******** morgage deliquent rate or past due or noncurrent
from morgage bankers assos
em define "deliquent"=30+ daes late
2007, quarter 1...2.87% av home morgages in default (nu hi)
home equity line av kredit: 0.6% R late
home equity lones: 2.15% "delinquencies rate"
mobile home lones: 2.94%
2007, quarter 2...delinquent=5.12%
quarter 3...5.59% deliquent
quarter 4...5.82% del (hiest sins 1985)
1.26% R 90+ daes behind
30 Sep 07: 5.6% av morgages R deliquent (Morgage Bankers Ass)
43% av subprime ARM lones R deliquent
18.7% av prime ARM lones R deliquent
1.7% av morgages R in forkloes proses
Nov 07: morgages 60+ daes late=61,000, up 35% from 2006
data from kumpanees that insure banker in kase bier dont pae.
Not all morgages hav such inshuer (PMI).
appli for such inshuer=173,259...up 65% from 2006
7. doom & gloom
housing bubbel, then krash ("bubble" in krat speek)
****** bubbel gloom
US hous bubbel av 2001-2006: hous prieses go up like krazy,
50-100% in sum plaeses. Then the krash. Bubbel top in 2006.
Then (gasp) hous prieses drop in most plaeses. Sum plaeses
take longer tu start the plunj: San Fran, Wash DC, & Nu York.
bubbel trivia: in 2005-2007, neer top av the bubbel, 22 milyun
bied a hous. Yu bot hi & now hous is werth less & yer underwater.
24 Jun 2008: pries drop so far...USA houses werth 5 trilyun $ less.
In 2007 hous pries go down almost evreeweer. Go down fastest
in plaeses that went up fastest. First tu get out (sell) R the
hous flippers ("investers"). Wen hous pries no longer go up,
em run for the hills. Next kum the forkloesed houses.
All the fools that tried tu bi hous em kant afford fall
behind on paements & then luze hous.
Aug 2007: Nuz media (weekly nuz mags & TV nuz) see it.
Now its in the Nuz & on TV. Bout 1 yeer late.
Okt 2007: Stok market see it & drop like a Rok.
Bout same time Fed Guvt see it & Fed banker start loer
interest rates "tu prevent housing from kauz a reseshun".
Feds panik & drop interest rate 1% tween normal meets.
& keep droppin interest rates. Eventually, tu 0%.
Dont werk. More folks luze hous kauz bank forkloes & take
bak the hous. Hous pries drop more, sales dri up.
Panik spred tu other finanshal "instruments". Banks rite
off bout 400 bilyun $ in bad morgages & related derivaties.
Sales av nu & yuzed houses drop like a rok.
Home bilders go bust. Many suppliers av morgages go bust.
Biggest morgage bank=Kuntreewide teeter on the brink.
Guvt broker a deel so bigger bank bi it out so it wont go bust.
Nashunal assos av reelters (NAR) keep up its drum beet:
now is the best time tu bi a hous; hous prieses alwaes go up;
hous in an investment; get rich wile yu lae around yer hous.
State sales tax take drop. Sum states (Florida, Kalif) kall
emerjensee seshun tu kut guvt spend & borro more munee.
Florida du sum stuf. Kalifornya dont: state guvt dedlokked.
Take til Feb 2009 tu raes taxes 40%.
Empty houses attrakt wetbaks hu liv theer free. Krooks
rip out the wires & plumbing tu sell tu other krooks.
Many empty & borded up houses on same street bekum iesore
& lokals komplaen "it drop property values & enkeraej krime".
Unexpekted side efekt: Many renters suddenly foersed out bekaus
the landlord lost the hous wen bank took it bak.
In sum plaeses, realters organize buses tu tuer forkloes houses.
Lode in all the potenshal biers; see 20 houses in 2 ours.
More & more state guvts pass laws that require banks tu
"maentaen" empty houses em took bak. Then more & more states
impose stop banks from forkloes for a month or 3.
More & more states make nu law that require bank tu giv yu
1-4 months warning B4 it kan take the hous awae.
Next step: lokal guvts will reevaluate property "value".
Em gotta sae yer hous is werth 10-50% less. Then lokal
guvts tri tu foers thru 20% inkrees in propertee taxes in the
middel av the resesshun the housing bust kauzed.
Last step: folks hu bot houses neer peek giv up hope em
will ever sell at a pries em want. Most take hous off the
market & tri tu waet it out. A fyu R koersed tu sell for
wotever em kan get.
gloom & doom late tibits
17 Jun 2008: JP Morgan analysis sae burst bubbel kut $ banks kan lend
bi 4 trilyun$. So far Wall Street rite off 325 bilyun$ in bad debt.
Hous pries tu fall 30% & bottom in 2010.
15 Mar 2008: Vegas: US feds charj Vegas kupel with fraud.
Em bot 200 "propertees" at hi pries with "straw biers"
Defraud morgage kumpanees with fawls folks & make bout 100 milyun $.
118 av the "propertees" forkloesed so far.
14 Mar 2008: inshuer kumpanee ritedowns from hous krash=38 Bilyun $
kompare: Katrina inshuer klaems=41 bilyun $ (not all paed)
5 Des 2006: Toll Brothers home bilders boss sed the slump is almost over
9 Okt 2006: Alan Greenspan sed "the worst mae well be over for US housing industree"
Sep 2006: Beezer Homes issue profit warn...sales down
7 Sep 2006: National Association av Reelters (NAR) loer its predikt
av home sales in 2006...nu ges=sales drop 7.6%.
(prior predikt sed 7% more sales in 2006)
[reel 2006 yuzed home sales down 8.4% tu 6,478,000]
doom & gloom...late home sales nuz
29 Des 2007: hedline: "nu home sales plunj tu 12 yeer lo"
last 12 month sales down 34.4%
**** NAR data for 2007:US median yuzed home pries=218,900$
median nu home pries=246,900$
Kalif: yuzed hous=558,100$, nu home=434,900$ (yeer median)
***
Jan 2008 home sales (posted 18 Feb 2008)
Kalif home sales=19,145...loest number sins 1988
wen DataQuik started keep rekords.
down 41% from Jan 2007
South Kalif (LA thru San Diego) median sale pries=415,000$
down 15% from 485,000$ in Jan 07
Las Vegas: median pries down 17.3% tu 249,900$ from Jan 2007
Forkloesed houses=38% av sales
Orange Kountee, Kalif: median home pries down 13.3% tu 520,000$
down 19.4% from peek av 645,000$ in Jun 2004
number houses sold down 46% from 2007 (28 months in roe av loer sales)
Feb 2008: LA ask pries=470,000$ on 18 Feb 08, was 579,666 in Apr 06
(down 18.7%)
8. down paement
Averaej down paement, first time bier
1976 18%
2005 2% (50%=no down)
Averaej down paement, all houses
1989 20%
2007 9% (29%=no down)
no-down as % av home bies
1998 3.8%
2000 3.9%
2002 5.8%
2004 12.6%
2005 19.7%
2006 21.1%
2007 29%
9. home equity
home equity is the differens tween the hous "value" & wot yu oe on
the morgage. Hous value=how much yu kan get if yu sell the hous.
Up til last fyu yeers, All US houses had equity kauz the banks
insisted yu gotta put munee down tu get a morgage. That chaenjed
in the housing bubbel av 2000-2006. Sins then hous "value" go
down. Even if yu keep paeing on morgage, if hous pries drop nuff,
yu kan luze yer "equity".
Now the bubbel bust & US meen hous pries is down 20% from the
2006 peek. Now many oe more on hous that it is werth. Yu hav
"negativ equity" or yu R "underwater". or "upside down".
Averaej US hous hav 45% equity...bank hav the other 55%.
Yu R "leveraged". If hous pries go up, yu win big, but wen
pries go down yu luze twies as much.
***** guvt yuze "houshold equity"=hous+"long term invest"
this peek at 78 Trilyun $ in Q3 2007
but subtraks "liabilities" & get 64.2 Tril "net werth"
hous part is 24 Tril
June 2009: net werth=50.3 Tril $...down 22%
***** 32% dont hav a morgage
31.8% av "oener-okkupied" houses dont hav a morgage (Sensus Buro)
32% av yu-all rent
Thus, 36% av yu-all hav a morgage. & its yer fault we had the
housing bubbel & the bubbel bust (hous krash).
***** 1995-2005: US home equity went up 8.0 Trilyun $
2006-2008: down 4.6 Tril...wipe out 57% av bubbel gaen
at rate hous pries drop in 2008, all bubbel equity gain
will be gon bi March 2010.
***** yeer % equity in yer hous
2005 59%
2008 45%
2009 41%
*****
2005: Federal Reserv sae US hous "equity" up 1.2 trilyun $.
2006: peek=21.9 Trilyun $.
During the hous bubbel, folks refinansed & took out all em kood
& spend it. 2004-2006: US home oeners took out 8 trilyun $ from
theer home equity. Then hous prieses drop in 2007 & 08 &09.
The party is over. Yu gotta liv with yer mistakes.
Sept for old fashuned folks like me hu never take out lone
ginst hous, alwaes put up at leest 20% down, alwaes pae off
morgage as fast as me kan.
home equity tibits
Aug 2009: "homeoener equity" down 40% from the peek (Fed Rezerv)
equity=41.4% av US hous value
2009 quarter 1: "net homeoener equity" down 1.3 Trilyun $ (Fed Rezerv)
down 21.6% from peek in 2007 Q3
2008, quarter 3: yu-all oen 44.7% av the hous...loest sins guvt keep rekords
June 2008: US banks have 1.12 trilyun $ in home equity lones "outstanding"
default rate=1.1% (quarter 1 2008), up 55% from 2007
2008: first 9 months...Homeoeners took out 100 bilyun$ from theer hous
(refinans or home equity lone)
This wile home "value" drop at max rate
Total USA home equity "outstanding" (www.federalreserve.gov/rnd.htm
yeer bilyun $
1990 258
1992 258
1994 274
1996 347
1997 420
1998 470
2000 5,700
2003 7,700
trivia: US nu home equity lones in 2004-05=600 bilyun $
The big hous boom av 2004-05 was fed bi nu tipes av lones weer
many biers did NOT put down 1 penny tuward the hous. Thus em never
hav NE equity.
31% av homeoeners oen the hous (100% equity)=dont oe a pennee=paed off the morgage.
********** equity...median % av hous "value" US "homeoeners" oen
1947 84.2%
1950 80
1960 64
1970 70
1980 71
1990 59
2000 55%
2004 56%
2007 50.4%
2008 Q1=46.2%
******* equity: late tibits
quarter 1 2008: different site sae US home equity drop 1.2 trilyun $
quarter 1 2008: averaej equity in home=46.2%...loest sins WW2
(Federal Rezerv, 5 June 2008)
total equity av all houses=9.12 trilyun $ (from 9.52 in q 4)
total $ oe on morgages=10.6 trilyun $ (from 10.53 in q 4)
estimated 8.5 milyun homeoeners R underwater (nevativ equity)
(16% av homeoeners)
quarter 4 2007: averaej equity in home=47.5%
(Federal Rezerv, 6 March 2008)
2007 averaej equity=50.4%
resent peek equity=56% in 2004
Net value av all US housholds down 533 bilyun $ in quarter 4 2007.
10. forkloes
("forecloshuer" or "foreclose actions" in krat speek)
or "reproses" ("bank seizures" in super krat)
forkloes tibids=late nuz
Stats for United States av Amerika
Forkloes=banker take bak the hous kauz yu didnt make the paements
also kalled "reprosessed"
(www.mortgagebankers.org/newsandmedia/presscenter/......)
if yu are behind on the morgage paements, yu R "past du" or "noncurrent"
or "in default" or "deliquent" or "preforkloes"
Deliquent= 60-90 daes behind on morgage paement=step B4 forkloes
**** forkloes trivia: Vegas, Apr 2009: 73.7% av hous sales was "property"
the bank took bak=forkloesed.
****** forkloes stats
Mae 2010: 322,920 "forkloes file+defaults"
2010, quarter 1: number forkloesed up 35% from 2009 (RealtyTrak)
932,234 "forkloes notis"
Bank took bak 257,944 houses
11 Des 09: 3.9 milyun forkloesed (projekted) in 09 (RealtyTrak)
2008: 3.1 milyun forkloesed in 2008
****** forkloes trivia (2008)
US: 6000 famlees/dae luze theer hous kauz it got forloesed
Kalifornya: 1 hous/minut forkloesed in 2008
Aug 2008: USA: Bank luze averaej av 64,000$ wen take bak a hous.
emptee hous: neerest 50 houses luze 3,000$ "value" akkording tu
Senter for Responsabel Lending
Banks hav 11.5 Bilyun $ av reposessed houses (30 Sep 08)
****** forkloes...Kongress kommittee study sae forkloes kost=77,935$ averaej
bank 50,000$
hous person kost 7,200$
nabers hous value drop 1,508$
lokal guvt 19,227$ (less tax take & fees paed)
****** The forkloes prosses kan take 3-36 months. Sum sites hav stats on
average time for bank tu go thru forkloes prosses:
2006 37 daes
2007 61 daes
1 man in South Kalifornya lived 7 yeers rent free til bank got
around tu take bak the hous.
"in proses"...Number is bout 4 times num forkloesed in 1 month.
****** forkloes Histree
1933: Kongres made the Home Oeners Lone Korp (HOLC)
tu bi morgages in default & resent forkloesed
1935: HOLC morgages=19% av total value av all US morgages
1941: HOLC hav 10% av USA morgages
20% av HOLC morgages forkloesed even tho guvt oen em
Jan 1934: 43.8% av sitee morgages in default (no data on num forkloesed)
28 states outlawed forkloes...bank kant take yer hous
33 states had releef for yu in default on the morgage
Wot solved the morgage mess?
WW2 brot prosperity & folks werk self outta trubel
2007: 1.5 milyun forkloes "starts" (Henree Paulson)
2008: 2.5 milyun (estimate)
********* forkloes rate:
July 2008: forkloes rate=1.19% (Morgage Bankers, 5 Sep 2008)
number houses in forkloes proses=2.75%
Jun 2008: Kredit Suis estimate 1.69 milyun forkloes in US in 2008
1.14 mil in 2009
Mae 2008: forkloesed=1.23% av morgages (av 8 biggest US banks)
Des 2007: 1.69% av US "homeoeners" R in middel av forkloes
=hiest sins Morgage Bankers Assos keep rekords in 1993
USA, 2007 number "in sum stage av forkloes"=1.3 milyun, up 79% over 2006
"forkloes filings"=2.2 mil (up 75%)
2007: Las Vegas 4.2% av houses was forkloesed in 2007, up 169% from 2006
*** trivia:1 study sae a 1% inkreez in forkloes rate=2.3% inkreez in krime.
1 forkloes kut value av neerbi houses bi 1.5%
50% av forkloes borroer never respond tu bank letters or kalls
(Freddee Mak)
*** funny: A famlee in Kleevland, Ohio fite off bank 11 yeers...
Dont send in 1 paement for 11 yeers. But the bank win:
it got the hous.
forkloes (USA) tibits=late data
July 2010: 325,000 got a "forkloes filing" in July
2010 quarter 2 (out 16 July) Banks take bak 269,952 houses
up 38% from 2009, up 5% from quarter 1
Banks "filed notices" on 895,521 "properties" in Q2
4.6% av US morgages R in forekloes "prosses"
Mae 2010: US: averaeg av 438 daes (1.2 yeers) from wen bank start
forkloes til bank thro yu out
Many banks waet 2-3 yeers B4 em start, kauz if em du, em
gotta mark lone as werthless & that kut theer paper profit
650,000 US "homeoeners" hav not paed on the morgage for
18 months or more. 19% av em: bank dont du nuthun.
Mae 2010: 14% av US morgages R late or in forkloes
39,000 hav not paed on morgage in 2+ yeers, but bank has
not yet started the "forkloes proses"
estimated 10 bil $/month not paed on moargages
many spend it insted
bank reposseshun =93,777, up 44% from 2009
2010, Q1 (Jan-March) 31% av hous sales=forkloesed
averaej diskount=27% belo pries av nonforked
Apr 2010: forkloes file=333,837, down 2% from 09 (ReeltyTrak)
banks take bak 92,432 houses (reposseshun)
up 45% from 2009
31 March 2010: 4.63% av morgages R in the forloes prosses
March 2010: 369,491 "forkloes file" up 19% from Feb 2010
up 8% from Mar 09
was 60,000 in 2005
4.5% av US houses R in "forkloes prosses"
Mar 2010: forkloesed R 20+% av hous sales (ReeltyTrak)
66% in Modesto, Kalif
2010, quarter 1: banks take bak 257,944 houses (ReeltyTrak)
(repossesshuns) up 35% from 2009
******* 2009 forkloes summary (out in Jan 2010)
2,820,000 "forkloes filings" in 2009 (Realtee Trak)
up 21% from 2008, up 120% from 07
des 2009 rate=4.2 milyun/yeer
predikt for 2010: 3.3 milyun
Des 09: reposess 92,000 houses, up 19%
***
Okt 09: 332,000 forkloesed (bank take bak the hous)
2009, quarter 3: number forkloesed up 22% from 2008 (Realtytrak)
July 2009:Banks took bak 87,000 houses in July ("repossessed" in krat speek)
forkloes "filings" up 32% from 2008
June 2009: Vegas: 70% av yuzed hous sales R forkloesed
2009, first half: 1.53 milyun houses "in the forkloes prosses"
up 15% over 2008 (Reelty Trak)
336,000 in June
Bank took bak 386,800 houses (first half)
June 2009: "forkloes filings" up 33% from 2008 (Realty Trak)
Banks took bak 79,000 houses in June ("repossessed" in krat speek)
Mae 2009: 19.1% av opshun-arm R in middel av forkloes
14.5% av subprime R in forkloes
Mae 2009: 321,480 "forkloes filed" (bank start paperwerk tu take hous)
up 18% from Mae 08 (Realty Trak)
quarter 1 2009: south Kalifornya: 57.4% av sales=forkloesed
Apr 2009: 63,900 houses reposessed in April, up 32% from 08 (Reelty Trak)
71,700 in Mar 09
Florida: 10.6% av morgages R in "forkloes proses"
Vegas: 73.7% av hous sales=forkloesed
Mar 2009: "forkloes aktivity" up 24% from 2008 (17 Apr 09)
(default, bank take hous, & sell hous at aukshun)
Quarter 1: forkloesed=803,489...1/159 av US housholds
North Dakota: forkloesed up 563% from 08
13 Mar 09: 700,000 forkloesed houses not yet for sale
(bank dont get orged & get paperwerk dun)
04 Mar 09: estimated 1.5 milyun REO in 2009
REO="real estate oened"=bank took bak forkloesed hous & tri tu sell it
Realty Trak sae 70% av REO's not listed as for sale
******* 2008 forkloes up 28% over 2007 (Reelty Trak)
forkloes numbers bi yeer
yeer number forkloesed
1926 68,100
1929 134,900
1930 150,000
1935 228,713
1940 75,556
1945 12,706
1950 21,537
1955 28,529
1960 51,353
1965 116,664
1970 101,070
***** forkloes, number
2005... 887,000 or 846,982 (different soers)
2006...1,260,000=1 in 92 (up 42% from 05)
2007...1,300,000
2008 1.4 mil (estimate)
*** forkloes rate...% morgages the banker take bak
1950's up tu 0.12% av morgages
1960's up tu 0.78%
1980 0.31%
1987 1.04
1990 0.9
2000 1.2
2001 1.5
2002 1.5
2003 1.3
2004 1.1
2005 2.5%
**** forkloes rate, bi sitee, 2007 (full yeer)
Detroit 4.9% av housholds lost hous or R in middel av forkloes
up 68% from 2006
Stokton, Kalif 4.8% up 271% from 2006
Vegas 4.2%
Riverside, Kalif 3.8%
Sacramento, Kalif 3.1%
Kleevland, Ohio 2.9%
Miami, flor 2.7%
************* in middel av forkloes ("preforeclosures" in krat speek)
or "foreclosure filings"
from RealtyTrak & morgage bankers association
Bank started the long legal steps tu take bak the hous (kan take a yeer)
Rate...% av lones in the forkloes proses)
2007: 1.3 milyun morgages...Banker started the forkloes prosses.
= bout 1% av morgages...(up 80% from 2006)
Nevada:66,316 files on 34,417 "propertees"...up 200% from 2006
3.4% av housholds got filed on
Florida: 2% got hit, up 100%
Kalifornya: 481,392 filed on 249,513 "propertees"...up 200%
1.9% av housholds got filed on
***** forkloes, side effekts
2007: redues "property values" bi 223 bilyun $
Banks spekt tu luze 400 bilyun $ on lone packages
****** forkloes...wi so many now?
maen problem area: sub-prime morgage & ARM's, "option" lones, teeser rates
"no-dokument" lones...many av yu tried tu bi hous yu kant afford.
hous pries go down, so kant refinans or sell hous...bier is
underwater or "upside down" ("negativ equity" in krat speek)
that meen yu oe more on the morgage than hous is werth
2007: 2 milyun ARM teester rates tu be reset tu reel rates this yeer
2007 & 08...2.3 milyun subprime lones tu reset from teeser rates tu reel rates
Mae 2008:500 bilyun $ in opshun lones, 60 % in Kalifornya
****** forkloes...bad area
1. midwest...Kar makers lae off so many werkers (Ohio, Indiana, Mishagin)
2. Kalif, Nevada, Arazona, Florida:
4 states hav 33% av subprime ARM's
"invester bi"...spekulaters tri tu flip houses for fast profit
Nevada: 32% av defaults=invester
Arazona:26%
Florida:25%
Kalif: 21%
11. fraud
9 Okt 2008
US Dept av Hous & Sitee Develop sae wetbaks hav 5,000,000 fraud morgages.
Apparentlee, this meen em suppli a SS number em stold or invent.
11. home
US...averaej home hav 26 "lektronik devises" (gadgets) (2007)
45 lites [maby that shood be lite bulbs]
servae...80% admit em kers at theer blak boxes
25% hit, kik, punch, or chop puter (pc)
****** R yu happy with yer home?
99.3% hav fridj (refigerater in krat speek)
98.9% hav stove
98.8% hav TV
97.8% hav nuff food
96.1% R happy or kontent
94.1% hav fone
92.2% hav wash masheen
90% hav mikrowave
89.1% hav klothes drier
84.6% hav aer/kon
63.1% hav puter (pc)
62.8% hav sell fone
62.3% hav dishwasher
36.9% hav freezer
9.5% hav "pests" (ants, roech, mous, termites, wotever)
5.4% sae the roof leek
3.0% hav broke windoes
2.9% hav holes or kraks in wall
2.1% hav plumbing probs
2 % dont hav running water
0.4% dont hav plumbing (no indoor water)
**** home trivia: 1,201,000 houses in US dont hav a bathroom (1995)
*** feel good?
96.7% thank home is safe
93.7% kan find a dokter ween need 1
92.8% thank area (naberhood) is safe
90% R warn nuff in winter
*** home: more trivia
58,900 town/sitee water kumpanees
tipikal nu hous yuze 13,837 bord-feet av lumber & 19 tons sement.
7 % av houses="mobile home" (traeler)
*** number houses="housing units" in krat speek
2004 116.0 milyun (at yeer end)
2005 124.51
2006 126.7
*** Des 2008: US hav 75,000,000 "oener okkupied houses"
*** warning...guvt stats not konsistant
2006 126.7 milyun "housing units"
75.8 milyun home oeners
34.2 milyun renters
sum=109.9 milyun=number av plaeses with sumwon init
or 86.8% av "units" hav sumwon init
averaej USA hous value (sell pries)
1999=108,300$
2000=120,000$
2003=140,000$
2006=218,000$
******* kost: see spend
12. home lones
(loan in krat speek)...value av morgages
"originations"...banker talk for a nu lone
***** home lone trivia: US home oeners took out 8 trilyun $ from theer "home equity"
wen hous prises go up fast in 2000-2006. Em spend evree sent.
sum kall this "the home as ATM"
Now hous pries go down=kant duit NE-more...many broke.
averaej lone volume=750 bilyun $/yeer in 1990's
yeer volume
2005 3.0 trilyun $
2006 2.5
home equity lones...7.2 bilyun (2002)
"outstanding"... dollar value av morgages not yet paed off
yeer total, bilyun $
1890 2.292
1900 2.917
1910 4.426
1920 9.120
1930 27.649
1940 23.810
1950 54.362
1960 161.636
1970 338.198
**
1990 3,807
2000 6,812
2007 11,000
13. luze munee, luze hous
************* hous valu drop, banks luze munee, wall street krash ****************>
hous bubbel pop, home bilders go bust, morgage kumpanees fael
wall street titans go belly up
many "home oeners" luze hous (bank take it bak=forkloes)
********* loss, jenral nuz
20 Jul 09: US jenral inspekter sae baelouts kood kost 24 Trilyun $
80,000$/persun in USA. R yu redee tu giv the guvt 80,000$?
02 Mar 09: AIG luze 62 bilyun $ in quarter 4...biggest loss ever
bi NE kumapnee in the werld.
It lost 99.3 bilyun $ in 2008
so far, US guvt giv it 180 bilyun$ tu tri tu keep it alive
27 Feb 09: kollaps av hous bubbel=luze 6 Trilyun $
"in housing welth for homeoeners" (Deen Baker)
25 Feb 09: Obana proposed budjet...1.5 Trilyun $ defisit...3 times old biggest
11 Des 08...estimated 2008 USA loss=7.1 Trilyun $ (hous & stok market)
as av 30 Sep 2008 (from fed rezerv "flo av funds" report)
projekted at yeer-end=10 Trilyun $
banks luze munee, bank fael
----- loss...banks & bank-like morgage makers
30 July 2010: 108 USA banks fael so far in 2010
02 Jun 2010: 245 USA banks go bust in past yeer
702 banks on FDIC problem list
20 Des 2009: 140 banks bust (bank fael, bank broke) so far in 2009
24 Nov 2009: 552 problem banks on guvt list
20 Jul 2009: the biggest kumpany that inshuer morgages (MGIC)
has flirted with bankrupt for last yeer. Now suspend biz=
wont inshuer nu morgages. If yu put down < 20%, yu gotta
get this PMI (privut morgage inshuer).
2008 yeer summary
USA: insured banks: 25 banks faeled (Guvt take it over or kloes it)
biggest bankrupt bank or bank-like kumpanee...Lehman Brothers=691 bilyun $
biggest bank fael in US histree...Washington Mutual=307 Bilyun $ gon
16 Des 08...25 US banks fael so far (dont kount guvt baelouts)
quarter 4, 2008: bankluze munee..."profit" negativ
quarter 3, 2008: 9 banks go bankrupt
73 banks bot out or merj
18 Nov 2008: latest kost av bank baelouts so far: 4.3 Trilyun $
first 3 quarters av 2008: busted banks had assets av 348 bilyun $...
biggest loss av bank munee sins 1945
11 Jan 2008: Bank av Amerika agree tu bi Kuntreewide finanshal tu prevent
it from go bankrupt. pae 4$/share=4 bilyun $. (was 100$ 1 yeer B4)
kuntreewide did 408 bilyun $ av morgage "originations" in last yeer.
March 2008: Beer Sterns broke, US guvt pae JP Morgan 29 bilyun $ tu
bi wotz left av Beer Sterns.
11 July 2008: IndyMak bank...guvt FDIC shut down the bank
2nd biggest bank fael in US so far
assets=32 bilyun $
****** Sep 2008
7 Sep 2008: US take over Fanee Mae & Fredee Mak. Kost=200 bilyun $
part tu bi its stok.
14 Sep 2008: Lehman Brothers go bankrupt wen US guvt refuze tu bi it out
estimated 613 bilyun $ av lones werthless
14 Sep 2008: Merril Lynch agree tu hasty biout bi Bank av Amerika tu avoid
go bankrupt. Bank offer 29$/share (50 bilyun $)
Merril stok drop tu 17$ that dae.
15 Sep 2008: Dow Jones down 504.5$
16 Sep 2008: Guvt bael out AIG=biggest inshuer kumpany
kost1=85 Bilyun $ (later guvt bael it out 2 more times)
guvt also bi 80% av its stok
8 Okt...guvt lone it 38 bilyun more
10 Nov...guvt lone it 40 bilyun more...sum=153 bilyun
01 Mar 2009: guvt lone it 30 bilyun more...sum=183 bilyun
18 Sep 2008: Guvts av US, Yerrop sentral Bank, England, Kanada...
all join tu sae em will thro munee at banks
20 Sep 2008: US guvt propose "Emerjensee Ekonomik Stabilize Akt"
tu spend 700 Bilyun $ tu bael out banks
name later chaenjed tu TARP
25 Sep 2008: JP Morgan take over Washington Mutual
Biggest US bank baelout ever
deposits=182 bilyun $
assets =310 bilyun $
Morgan pae 1.9 bilyun $ tu FDIC tu get it.
Wash Mutual luze 19 bilyun $ on bad morgages
Morgan sae it will rite em down 31 bil more
Wash Mutual shares dropped 95% Jan til 25 Sep
Wash Mutual SEO hav 8.5 milyun $ gold parashute
Banks will be kalled "Chase"
Biggest US bankrupt: Lehman Brothers...613 bilyun $
[AIG="Amerikan Baelout Gruep" in modern guvt speek]
87 bil$ tu JP Morgan bank
300 bilyun $ tu FHA
10 Nov 2008: guvt loned banks 2 trilyun $ in last 3 months
quarter 4 2008: US banks lost 26.2 bilyun $
luze munee, Boomers
----- loss...Boomers
Hous krash 2006-Feb 2009: Boomers lost 45% av theer "welth"
hav 80,000$ left
luze munee, Houses
03 Sep 09: Bloomberg sae "houshold welth" down 7 trilyun $
54,000$/hous
Aug 09: Market value av US houses down 4 trilyun $=18% (Fed Rezerv)
13,000$/persun in USA
now value=17.9 Trilyun $
**** 2008 yeer end
2008: hous values down 3.3 trilyun $ in 1 yeer (Zillo)
down 6.1 Trilyun from peek in 2006
Kase Shiller 20-sitee index pries down 18.5%
down 27% from peek
(down 29 months in a roe)
Federal Reserv sae "value" av all US houses=21 trilyun $ (2005)
& hous "equity" up 1.2 trilyun $ in 2005...top av the bubbel.
but lost 128 bilyun $ in 2007.
loss=23.4% av 21 trilyun=4.9 trilyun $
Averaej equity in hous: peek=56% in 2004, drop tu 50.4% in 2007.
Bubbel pop shood take hous values down 50%=down 10.5 Trilyun $
March 2008: fed guvt giv 4 bilyun $ tu lokal guvts tu fix abandoned houses
luze: inshuer kumpanees
----- loss...inshuer
MBIA=kumpany that provide PMI tu inshuer bank if yu dont pae off morgage
2007: MBIA lost 1.9 bilyun $
2008 2.7 bilyun $
luze jobs
1 July 2009: US job loss sins Des 2007=6,500,000.
Mae 2009: 4 states hav outta werk > 11%
5 Mar 2009: US lost 697,000 jobs in Feb 09 (ADP job index)
(or was it 651,000?...guvt number)
& 8.6 milyun foresed tu werk short ours (part time)
10 Feb 2009: US lost 522,000 jobs in Jan 09
09 Jan 2009: US lost 2.6 milyun jobs in 2008 (Bloomberg)
31 Des 2008: finans firms laeoff 222,000 werkers in 2008
Big banks that got US baelout laed off 100,000 werkers
Same banks asked guvt tu let em import 21,800 hi-pae forin
werkers over last 6 yeers. Averaej pae=90,720$.
luze: stoks krash
30 Jun 2009: S&P 500 stok index down 37% over last 10 yeers
or -5%/yr
tu be even bi end av 2009, gotta go up 70% in next 6 months
06 Mar 2009: US stok indexes down 56-60% sins hi in Sep 2007
12 yeer lo
2008: global stok markets down 30 TRILYUN $
US stoks lost 7 trilyun $ in 2008
US: S&P 500 down 39% in 2008, down 52% from Sep 2007
5-yr retern=-2.3%/yeer
NASDAQ down 42%
DOW down 35% baddest sins 1931
Japan market down 42% (biggest down ever)
20 Nov 2008: SitiKorp stok value down 200 bilyun $, dispite guvt
giv em 25 bilyun $ from the TARP munee
Bank av Amerika is down 180 Bilyun $ (dispite 25 bil from Unkel Sam)
AIG down 160 bilyun $, dispite 153 bilyun $ av taxpaer munee
20 Okt 2008: US stok market at 11 yeer lo
25 Okt 2008: stok market down 16.3 trilyun $ from 1 yeer ago
1 Aug 2007: Kredit krisis start wen Beer-Sterns hedj funds go bankrupt (Biz week)
em "invest" in "asset-bakked"="morgage based" sekeritees
Later, Beer-Sterns get bied-out tu prevent it go bankrupt
pries =3% av its value 1 yeer B4
9 Aug 2007: sum sae the bust start wen French bank BNP suspend 3 funds
& short term kredit market freez
----- loss...inshuer
remember that PMI yu had tu get wen yu bi hous with < 20% down?
The kumpanees that provide that inshuer had tu pae up on 105,000
houses in Des 2008. Nu lones with PMI=46,605.
Inshuer kumpanees luze bilyuns
loss tibits=late nuz bout luze munee on hous
09 Mar 2009: latest kongress propose tu kommit tu 9.7 Trilyun $ baelouts
(819 bilyun $ "stimulus pakaej")
If dont send it tu banks, kood pae off 92% av morgages in USA.
27 Feb 2009: US stok markets down 10 Trilyun $ sins hi in Sep 2007
Feb 2009: 10 "small" banks go bust in Feb 2009, FDIC take em over
kost taxpaers 944 milyun $
****** 2008 yeer end
2008: US "welth" down 11.1 Trilyun $ in 2008=18% (Fed Rezerv)
2008: US hous valu down 3.3 trilyun $ in 2008 (Zillo, 3 Feb 2009)
down 6.1 Trilyun $ from hi in 2006
2008, quarter 4 Fed Rezerv sae US lost 5.1 Trilyun $ in Q4
2008, quarter 3 (out on 11 Des 2008)...Federal Rezerv sae
US houshold "welth" down 2.81 Trilyun $ from 2007...down 9.84%
(biggest drop sins 1952 wen guvt start keep data)
hous net asset down 20.8% (down 2.25 trilyun $) from 2007
down 31.7% (4.0 trilyun $) sins 2005
Nov 2008: kase shiller report
US median hous pries down 25% from peek in 2006
01 Des 2008: update on kongres vote 700 bilyun $ baelout
Guvt krats promis 8.6 trilyun $ tu banks, inshuer kump, ets
=nuff tu pae off 50% av morgages in USA
13 Nov 2008: yu lost munee on 30% av the houses sold in 12 months
thru Sep 08 (Zillo)
25 Aug 2008: "banks & finans instutes reported 504 bilyun $ av losses
sins Jan 2007 stemming from the kollaps av morgage market"
12 Aug 2008: 77% av houses: value is down from 1 yeer ago (Zillo)
62% av oeners thank his hous is up or konstant
45% av houses bot in 2006 down 10+%
33% bied in 2002-2007 R underwater (hous werth less than morgage)
29% av all houses in USA R underwater
**** banks riteoff losses
12 Aug 2008: total losses tu date from morgages & morgage-bakked papres:
510 bilyun $ (Internashunal Monetary Fund)
Citigrupe 55.1 bilyun $
Merril Lynch 51.8
UBS 44.2
HSBS 27.4
Wachovia 22.5 (Wakovia)
B av Amerika 21.2
11 Jul 2008: Fannee Mae stok down 80% sins Okt 2007; Fredee Mak down 90%
Fannee hav 3.0 trilyun $ av morgages
Fredee hav 2.2 tril
14. morgage
("mortgage" in krat speek)
yer a "home oener" if yu hav a morgage=pae on lone bakked bi hous
Mae 2010: USA hav 51 milyun "aktiv" morgages (not paed off)
75 milyun "oen" a hous. (Buro av Ekon Analysis)
24 milyun paed off the morgage (or paed kash)
51 mil hav a morgage
7.2 mil R in default or forkloes (April 2010)
Fed guvt inshuer or garantee 99% av morgages in USA
Fed spend 1.5 trilyun $ in 2008-09 tu bi morgages.
Fanny & Fredee projekt em will luze 1 triyun $ on morgages em hold
Total USA folks oe on morgages: 10.48 trilyun in 2007
10.33 tril (April 2010, Federal Rezerv)
averaej oe on morgage =200,374$
averaej USA hous pries=170,000$
Rent: 37,728,276 famlees rent (Sensus Buro)
Kommershal reel estate morgages=3.5 Trilyun (Mae 2010)
morgage...late data tibits
Apr 2010: US guvt is the hous market...96.5 % av morgages R
"bakked" bi US guvt thru FHA, Fannee Mae, Freddee Max, & VA
& then the fed du evreethang it kan tu loer interest rates
so biers kan get cheep morgages.
& wot bout the 1.2 Trilyun $ av morgages the guvt bied?
Jul 2009: 68% av "oener-okkupied" houses hav a morgage
Des 2008: averaej $ oed on morgage=192,287$
Kalifornya: 356,421$
Mar 2008: USA hav 11 trilyun $ av home morgages, & home value=21 trilyun $.
USA hav 51 milyun morgages:
ARM =13.4 mil
1 "standard" fixed-rate morgate =12 mil (& no other hous-bakked lones)
num houses with 2 or more morgages=12 mil
subprime+alt-a 10 mil
num houses with HELOC 10 mil (home equity line av kredit)
num FHA + VA (3% down) =6.5 mil
morgage+baloon lone 4.4 mil
***** morgage numbers (US hav 108,954,300 housholds)
2006: 51,234,170 housholds hav a morgage
3.5 milyun hav no equity (or negativ equity=em oe more than hous is werth)
Sep 2007: 10.6 trilyun $ av morgage lones "outstanding"
Des 2007: estimated 5.6 milyun morgages R underwater (yu oe more than hous is werth)
**** morgage trivia: in 2007, 100 morgage kumpanees wen bankrupt or sumwon bi it
************ Fannee Mae & Freddee Mak...half-guvt morgage biers
2007, quarter 4: 76.1 % av morgages gotu Fannee or Fredee
i.e., bankers sell theer morgages tu thees semi-guvt morgage makers
The 2 hold 6 trilyun $ av morgages("outstanding obligations" in krat speek)
morgage paed off
home oeners...25% hav paed off the morgage (2006)
65+ yrs old 61% hav
Des 2006: morgages bi klass
fixed rate =54%
adjustabel =28%
interest oenlee=18%
refinans old morgage=52.6% av morgage "akshuns"
Deliquent...borroer is 90+ daes behind on morgage paement
this is the step B4 forkloes
spring 2007: 22.4% av subprime morgages R delinquent
5.1% av all morgages R delinquent
June 2007: 500,000 in USA R deliquent
Aug 2007: subprime lones...14.82% R deliquent
regular lones 2.73% R deliquent
2005 & 2006: 1.1 trilyun $ av fansee nu sub-prime morgages
(hybrid, adjustabel-rate, no or lo dokumentation, "option", ets)
2007: the erlee period with arbitrary lo % interest (teeser rates="honymoon")
end & the interest rate reset tu reel rate...it go up big time.
This meen yer monthly paement inkreez, sumtimes bi 200%.
Such borroers R in deep trubel. Estimated 2 bilyun $ in ARM opshun
lones will reset tu hier interest rate in 2007-2008.
kin tu morgage stuf
***** morgage broker=middelman hu spozed tu help home bier find a morgage.
problem is broker get paed a % av the morgage, so him want yu
tu get the biggest possabel morgage (or more).
***** "conforming" morgage=the old standard...fixed % interest & fixed yeers such as 30-yeer lone.
"konform" meen it meet the rules av semi-guvt body such as Fannee Mae.
If so, that body kan bi the morgage & banker is off the hook.
Most bankers sell the morgages so em get theer profit up front.
hous bubbel..."nonkonforming" lones bekum kommon.
2000: 0% av morgages nonkonform
2003: 35%
2004: 59%
2005: 65%
***** morgage..."originations"=banker speek for nu morgages em make
=how much munee em lone tu yu hu bi a hous
2007: nu morgages=2.38 trilyun $
2008: estimate= 1.98 tril (down 16%)
***** morgage "production"...banker talk for how much munee em lone out for morgages
2006=2.72 trilyun $
2007 2.31 (estimate as av oktober 07)
***** morgage: subprime lones...banker lone munee tu yu with poor kredit histree
2004: 540 bilyun$ av subprime lones in USA
2005: 628 bilyun
***** sekond morgage
Aug 2008: estimated 1.2 trilyun $ av sekond morgages & HELOC
16. home numbers
number av houses or homes in United States
"residential nonfarm owner-occupied housing units" in krat speek
yeer number with morgage
number %
1890 2,924,000 810,000 27.7%
1900 3,567,000 1,087,000 32.0
1910 5,245,000 1,701,000 33.3
1920 7,041,000 2,736,000 39.8
1930 10,550,000
1940 11,413,000 4,805,000 45.3
1950 19,802,000 7,825,000 44.0
1960 27,862,000 15,816,000 56.8
1970 33,206,000 20,110,000 60.6
2007 127,700,000
**** home pries see...hous pries
17. home oen
(www.census.gov/hhes/www/historic....)
("own" in krat speek) stats from sensus buro
Federal Rezerv: if yu pae on a morgage, yu R a homeoener
resent peek=69.2% in 2004
June 2010: 66.9% oen hous (or hav a morgage)
27 Apr 2009: 67.3% av housholds "oen" theer hous bi guvt rules
****
2008...number housholds=110 milyun
% av USA housholds hu oen (or pae on) the plaes em liv in (sensus buro)
1900...47 % oen home
1930...47 %
1940...43 %
1950...50.0%
1965...62.9%
1975...64.4%
1980...65.5%
1985...64.1%
1990...64.0%
1995...64.2%
2000...67.1%
2004...69.2% (rekord hi)
2005...69.1%
2006...69.0%
2007 67.8%
2008, quarter 1...67.8% (sensus buro, Jun 2008)
2008, quarter 4...67.5%, down tu 2001 level
2009, quarter 1...67.3%
*** 2nd hous
US...em with a "sekond home"=vakashun home...spend 12 daes/yeer theer
87% av homeoeners R wite (81% av populashun is wite)
***** home oen bi aej
aej % oen home (1999)
<25 19.9%
25-29 36.5
30-34 53.8
35-39 64.4
40-44 69.9
45-49 74.5
50-54 77.8
55-59 80.7
60-64 81.5
==> 65-69 82.9
70-74 82.8
75+ 77.1
17. other...kin tu hous nuz
USA: averaej persun...muve tu different addres evree 7 yeers
15 Aug 2008: morgage inshuer kumpanes luze 2.6 bilyun $ so far this yeer
PMI="privut morgage inshuer"=kumpanees that pae bank if yu default
on the morgage.
paed out 6 bilyun $ so far this yeer.
The kumpanees that provide PMI inshuer had tu pae up on 105,000
houses in Des 2008. 46,605 nu lones with PMI.
18. predikt hous pries & sales
NAR predikt home sales
reel home sales, klik heer
National Association av Reelters:(NAR)
******** NAR predikt 2007 yuzed home sales & pries
1 Jan 2007: yuzed home sales tu hold stedee in 2007 (6.5 milyun)
"the third best yeer on rekord"
median pries tu go up 2%
reel 2007 yuzed home sales=5,652,000...down 12.8%, pries down 9%
10 Jan2007: yuzed home sales tu rise gradual thru 2007 & 2008
12 Apr2007: 6.34 milyun
9 Mae 2007: 6.29
6 Jun 2007: 6.18
Okt 2007: 5.78
8 Jan 2008: 5.65
*** reel number sold in 2007=5.65 milyun
28 Jan 2008: NAR sae 2007 yuzed home sales=loest in 27 yeers
& 2007 is first yeer median sale pries go down for hole USA
******** NAR predikt 2008 home sales & pries
11 Des 2006: 6.40 milyun sales in 2008
7 Feb 2007: 6.44 mil
10 Okt 2007: 5.80 mil
09 Des 2007: "home sales tu trend up in 2008"
**
8 Jan 2008: 5.70 mil
8 Jan 2008: "will pik up 'significantly' in 2nd half av 08"
18 Feb 2008: sales rate=4.9 mil in first half, 5.8 mil in sekond half
yeer=5.6 mil
06 Mar 2008: 5.38 mil in 2008
Mae 2008: NAR predikt yuzed home pries:2008 down 2.4%
9 Jun 2008: 5.4 mil... yuzed home pries:2008 down 6.3%
8 Aug 2008: 5.51 mil
9 Sep 2008: 5.01 mil
7 Nov 2008: 5.02 mil
23 Des 2008: 4.5 mil
*** reel number sold in 2008=4.912 milyun
******** NAR predikt 2009 home sales & pries
11 Des 2006: 6.40 milyun sales in 2009
10 Jan 2007: 6.42 milyun
8 Jan 2008: 5.91 milyun sales in 2009...up 6.9% from 2008
pries up 3%
4 Feb 2009: 5.12 milyun
4 Mar 2009: 4.93 milyun
Other predikt...housing stuf
08 Feb 2009: hous pries will hit bottom at end av 2009 & median US
hous pries down 36% from hi. (Mark Zandi av Ekonomik Reserch Hub)
20 Jan 2009...Nashunal Home Bilders
hous pries tu drop 29% in 2009=45% from peek
10 Jan 2009...Moody pridikt home prieses in 2009-2011
USA median hous pries tu drop 15% in 2009
Vegas: down 43% more
Miami 42.5%
Palm Bae, Flor 41%
Fort Lauderdale 37%
Provo, Utah 34%
Tuson 33%
Fenix, Ara 31%
honolulu 31%
Fort Lauderdale, flor: 30%
Newark, Nu Jersee 26%
Manhattan 20%
predikt drop in 2009 & 2010 tugether:
Honolulu 31%
Salt Lake Sitee 29%
Newark, NJ 26%
Manhattan 20%
29 Des 2008: Kredit Suise predikt 8-10 milyun morgages go bust 2009-2012
1.8 milyun morgages "enter forkloes prosses" in 2008
Des 2008: forclosures.com sed "rekuvery is underwae. Affordabel is bak.
In 2009 housing will rekuver & put hier pries pressures on the market"
Des 2008: Moody predikt hous prieses will fall til erlee 2010
11 Des 2008: Bloomberg predikt 1,000,000 will luze hous in 2009
880,000 in 2008
11 Nov 2008: Moody predikt 2009 pries fall:
Miami 18.8%
LA 17.2%
Wash DC 17.1%
Nu York 13.7%
Boston 12.5%
06 Mae 2008: Wall Street Jernal...hous bust hit bottom in April 2008
******* banks
**** 28 Feb 2008: "no problems mung large aktiv banks" (Ben Bernanke=Fed Rezerv boss)
Sep 2008: Washington Mutual=biggest bank bust ever
Okt 2008: Fed baelouts av banks kost more than 10 Wash mutuals
******* 2007
Des 2007: morgage bankers predikt
2008 yuzed home sales=4.94 milyun down 13% from 2007
5 Des 2007: konferens av maers:
total value av lokal reel estate tu go down 7% in 2007=1.2 TRILYUN $
(Fed Rezerv sae total US homes (reel estate) werth 21 trilyun $ (2007))
estimate 1.4 milyun forkloes in 2008
22 Okt 2007: Morgage Bankers Ass sed
"morgage industree" laed off 70,000 werkers so far in 2007
projekt 100,000 bi yeer end
number morgages down 15% in 2007
2008: down 18%
2009: down 6%
21 Okt 2007: Ivy Zelman predikt:
nu home sales:
2007:804,000
2009:604,000
2010:705,000
yuzed home sales:
2007:5,700,000
2009:3,400,000
2012:4,400,000
9 Jul 2007: Barrons sae reel estate will go down 30% more
19. hous pries
United States hous kost (price, value)
("dwelling unit" in krat speek)
("oener-occupied housing units" in guvt speek)
************* hous price, housing cost, hous value ************
trivia: wen morgage % interest go down 1%, hous pries go up 4.6%
2006: 35% av biers pae >=50% av theer inkum on the hous.
8.8 milyun, up from 6.5 mil in 2001
Aug 2008: 62% av homeoeners sae theer hous "value" is up or the same
(servae at zillo.com)
Zillo sae 77% av houses R down (value or pries is less)
Des 2009: Reelters assos sae:
Nov 1999 median US hous pries=137,600$
Nov 2009 median=172,600$
But adjust for flate rate & 2009 pries 3% belo 1999.
Wot shood hous kost?
****************** 1. pries tu median inkum raesho ********************
long term averaej=2.8 (over last 30 yeers)
2007 USA median houshold inkum =50,233$/yeer (US sensus buro)
(note: in inflated $, 1999 inkum was 50,700$)
median hous pries shood be 140,000$
aktual median in 2007 =208,400$...49% 2 hi
The West: pries=309,800 =121% 2 hi
Kalifornya: pries=402,000$=187% 2 hi ratio=8.0
note: Kalif alwaes kost 2 much, in 1990 ratio=6 insted av 2.8
Kalif hous pries top was 597,640$ in April 2007
see also...afford
************ median US hous value (US sensus buro)
median US hous pries
yuzed hous nu hous
1963 17,000$
1965 20,700
1970 23,600
1975 37,200
1980 64,900
1985 82,500
1990 125,000
1995 135,000
**
2000 121,000
2003 147,275
2006 221,900 305,900
2007 208,400 313,600
hous pries per square foot
****** Jan 2008 (RPX Monthly Hous Market Report)
Sitee $/sq ft 1 yeer chaenj
1. San Jose, Kalif 418.54 -8.8%
2. San Fran, Kalif 367.28 -13.3%
3. Los Angel, Kalif 325.42 -16.6
4. Nu York, NY 292.07 2.0
5. San Diego, Kalif 264.17 -21.2%
6. Wash DC 214.07 -8.7
7. Seattel, Wash 210.20 -1.4
8. Boston, Mass 207.39 -9.0%
9. Miami, Flor 176.02 -14.4
10. Shekago, Ill 171.78 -3.2
11. Sakramento, Kal 165.66 -27.8%
12. Filly, Penn 148.05 - 0.9
13. Minn, Minn 143.34 - 7.2%
14. Las Vegas, Nevada 136.61 -25.4%
15. Fenix, Arazona 135.74 -14.6%
16. Denver, Kolo 127.71 - 9.1%
17. Tampa, Flor 117.08 -15.6%
18. Jaksunvil, Flor 113.80 - 3.9%
...
25. Kleeveland, Ohio 84.91 - 6.1%
**** flash (Feb 2008) Nashunal Assoc av realters sae cheepest plaes
Yungstown, Ohio...72,600$
based on median resell pries av yuzed houses in quarter 4, 2007
hiest kost=San Jose, Kalqf...834,300$ (up 11.2%)
**** trivia: Registered nurs kant afford median-pries hous in 108 av 200
biggest metro areas (Jan 2008)
Federal Rezerv sae: wen hous "value" drop 1$, famlee spend drop 7 sents.
hous bubbel
hous bubbel 2000-2006, hous pries go up 83%, median inkum up 14%
Bubbel made 12 trilyun $ av "fiktishus value"
Gotta luze all that for hous prieses tu retern tu normal
Hous prieses gotta drop 50%. Drop started in late 2006.
If pries drop 10%/yeer, take til end av 2011.
hous pries predikts
20 Nov 2006: US ekonomists sae (2 tu 1) the hous bust is over
20 Nov 2007: ekonomists dont komment
Kurt Karl (Swiz Reinshuer) predikt 2007 pries inkreez=7% overall
reel numbers for Nov 2007: US mean hous pries down 7% from 2006
10 Jun 08: NAR (Nashunal assos av reelters) predikt
yuzed home pries will fall 6.4% in 2008
Mae: em sed pries tu drop 2.4%
Jan: em sed pries go up 4-7%
20 Mar 08: UCLA professer predikt Kalifornya hous "value"
tu drop bi 631 bilyun$ in 2008
Feb 2008: Fannee Mae predikt US hous pries tu fall 4.5% in 2008
Feb 2008: Fenix, Arazona...kountee assesser sae median hous assessment
down 13% from 1 yr ago, now=199,800$ (feeld werk in fall av 2007)
hous bubbel peek pries
Kase-Shiller nashunal hous index (20-sitee index)
peek=206.52 in July 2006
Kase-Shiller, bi METRO AREAS
peek date peek pries
1. San Fran Mae 2006 665,000$
2. LA Sept 2006 651,000$
3. San Diego Nov 2005 517,500$
4. Miami Des 2006 350,000$
5. Fenix June 2006 340,000$
6. Vegas Aug 2006 315,000$
7. Detroit Des 2005 188,275$
detroit sitee: peek=97,850$ in 2003
median hous pries (Mar 09)=13,638$
*** other soers: Zillo
8. Wash DC Jun 2006 444,870$
*****
Kalifornya peek hous pries...597,640$, April 2007
South Kalif (LA thru San Diego) 505,000$
LA peek pries 550,000$, Aug 2007
Orange kountee peek pries= 645,000$, Jun 2004
Santa Barbara 1,667,000$ Sep 2007
San Fran Bae Area 853,000$ Mae 2007
hous pries tibits...late data
Apr 2010: hous pries drop sins peek: (out 29 June 10)
Vegas: -55.9%
Fenix: -50.7%
Miami: -47.5%
Detroit -45.5%
Tampa -41.9%
LA -36.0%
San Fran -35.3%
San Diego -35.1%
20-sitee index: -29.63%
Feb 2010: % drop in median hous sales pries sins bubbel peek
Riverside, Kalif: -57.8%
Las Vegas: -57.0%
Napels, Flor: -54.9%
Orlando, Flor -50.8%
Detroit, Mish -50.4%
Ft Lauderdale -47.6%
LA -42.3%
Tampa -40.6%
Santa Anna, Kal -36.7%
Wash, DC -29.0%
San Fran -28.3%
Feb 2010: US median yuzed hous sales pries= 164,600$
***** 2009 yeer: US yuzed hous pries=172,500$, down 13% from 2008
***** 2008 yeer: US yuzed hous pries=198,276$ down 9.5% from 2007
***** 2007 yeer: US yuzed hous pries=219,090$
Des 09: Mersed Kalif: median home pries down 62% from peek=biggest drop
Vegas: down 48%
Miami: down 38%
Aug 09: Kalif hous pries=292,960$...down 50.7% from peek (Kalif reelters)
Peek: 594,530$ in Mae 07
July 09: Vegas yuzed hous median pries=135,000$, down 41.3% from 08
"all-home index" down 56.7% from Nov 2006 (bubbel peek)
singel-famlee pries=77$/sq-ft, down 59.5% from 190$ in June 06
***** hous pries: Sep 2009 (kase-shiller) (24 Nov 09)
** (www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price....)
Feb 2010: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (27 Apr 2010)
20-sitee index ????
sitee 1-yr % pries chaenj
Vegas -14.6%
Tampa - 6.0%
Detroit - 5.4%
Shekago - 3.0%
Charlot - 2.5%
Atlanta - 0.9%
Wash DC + 5.0%
Des 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (20 Mar 2010)
20-sitee index down 3.1% from 2009, down 32.6% from peek
sitee 1-yr % pries chaenj
Vegas -20.6%
Tampa -11.0%
Detroit -10.3%
Miami - 9.9%
Fenix - 9.2%
Seattel - 7.9%
Shekago - 7.2%
Nu York - 6.3%
Portland - 5.4%
Atlanta - 4.0%
Minneapolis - 2.3%
LA 0.0%
Wash DC 1.9%
San Fran 4.8%
Okt 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (29 Des 2009)
20-sitee index down 7.3% from 2008, down 32.6% from peek
sitee 1-yr down
Vegas 26.6%, down 55.4% from peek in Aug 06
Fenix 18.1%
Tampa 15.2%
Detroit 15.1%
Miami 14.0%
Seattel 12.4%
Shekago 10.1%
Portland 9.9%
Minneapolis 8.4%
Atlanta 8.1%
Nu York 7.7%
LA 6.3%
Wash DC 2.8%
San Fran 2.6%
***** hous pries: Sep 2009 (kase-shiller) (24 Nov 09)
Sep 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries
20-sitee index down 8.9% from 2008
sitee 1-yr down
Vegas 28.6%
Fenix 21.8%
Detroit 19.2%
Tampa 16.7%
Miami 16.2%
Seattel 13.8%
Minneapolis 11.2%
Shekago 10.6%
Atlanta 9.3%
LA 9.0%
Nu York Sit 9.0%
San Fran 7.8%
San Diego 5.7%
Wash DC 5.0%
***** hous pries: Aug 2009 (kase-shiller) (27 Okt 09)
Aug 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries
20-sitee index down 11.3% from 2008
sitee 1-yr down
Vegas 29.9%
Fenix 25.1%
Detroit 22.6%
Miami 18.8%
Tampa 17.7%
Seattel 14.7%
Minneapolis 13.7%
Shekago 12.7%
San Fran 12.5%
LA 12.0%
Atlanta 10.6%
NY sitee 9.6%
San Diego 8.9%
Wash DC 7.9%
***** hous pries: June 2009 (kase-shiller) (26 Aug 09)
Mae 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (28 July 09)
20-sitee index down 15.4% from 2008: bak tu 2003 pries
sitee 1-yr down
Vegas 32.4%
Fenix 31.6%
Detroit 25.0%
Miami 23.4%
San Fran 22.0%
Minneapolis 19.8%
Tampa 19.5%
LA 17.8%
Shekago 16.7%
Seattel 16.1%
San Diego 16.0%
Atlanta 13.7%
NY sitee 11.9%
Wash DC 11.8%
Boston 5.9%
***** hous pries: Mae 2009 (kase-shiller)
Mae 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (28 July 09)
20-sitee index down 17.1% from 2008, down 32% from peek
sitee 1-yr down
Fenix 54.5%
Vegas 53.4%
Miami 48.5%
San Fran 45.0%
Detroit 44.9%
San Diego 42.0%
LA 41.9%
Tampa 41.0%
Minneapolis 35.9%
Wash DC 32.5%
Shekago 26.6%
Seattel 22.6%
Atlanta 22.6%
NY sitee 21.0%
Boston 18.5%
15 June 09: Detroit median hous pries=6,000$
Apr 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (30 June 09)
20-sitee index down 18.1% from 2008, down 32.6% from 2006
bak tu June 2003 pries
sitee 1-yr down from peek
Fenix 35.3% 54.1%
Vegas 32.2% 52.1
San Fran 28.0% 45.8
Miami 27.3% 48.1
Detroit 25.4% 45.0
Minneapolis 22.1% 36.5
LA 21.3% 41.8
Tampa 21.3% 41.0
San Diego 20.0% 42.3%
Shekago, Ill 18.7% 27.5%
Wash DC 16.9% 33.4
Seatel, Wash 16.8% 22.5
Portland 16.0% 21.3
Atlanta 14.8% 22.8%
Nu York 12.5% 21.1
Apr 2009:
biggest % pries drop sins top av hous bubbel:
Riverside, Kalif 57.7%
Sakramento, Kalif 56.5%
San Fran Kalif 52.5%
Fenix, Arazona 51.9%
Kleevland, Ohio 51.5%
Vegas 51.3%
LA 48.8%
San hozae, Kalif 48.0%
San Diego 47.5%
Miami 47.3%
South Kalif (LA thru San Diego) median=247,000$ down 35.8% from 08
down 51% from peek av 505,000$ in June 2007
bak tu Feb 2002 pries
forkloesed=53.6% av sales
Vegas meen yuzed hous pries=141,700$, down 40% from 2008 (Reelter org)
down 55% from 315,000$ in June 2006
forkloesed=80% av sales
2009 quarter 1: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (26 Mae 09)
US 20-sitee index down 18.7% from 2008 & 32.2% from peek (2006)
Fenix: down 36%
Vegas: down 31.2%
San Fran: 30.1%
Detroit: bak tu 1995 pries
2009 quarter 1: US meen yuzed hous pries=169,000$, down 14% from 2008
(reelters assos)
Vegas: 150,000$ or 84$/sq-ft...down 40% from 2008 (Dataquik)
zip=89103: 88,000$, down 83%
zip=89101: 45,500$=39$/sq-ft, down 75%
zip=89030: 39,000$=34$/sq-ft
Mar 2009: Kase-shiller US median hous pries (26 Mae 09)
20-sitee index down 18.7% from 2008
sitee 1-yr down from peek
Fenix 36.0% 53.0%
Vegas 31.2% 50.3%
San Fran 30.1% 45.9%
Miami 28.7% 46.5%
Detroit 25.7% 42.4%
LA 22.3% 41.3%
Tampa 22.4% 40.6%
San Diego 22.0% 42.0%
Minneapolis 23.3% 36.1%
Wash DC 18.4% 33.6%
Seatel, Wash 18.4% 17.2%
Atlanta 15.7% 22.2%
Mar 2009:
Vegas meen yuzed hous pries=149,000$, down 38.7% from 2008 (Reelter org)
bak tu April 2002 pries
"distressed" sales=86% av sales
that inklude 2,252 forkloesed houses
Feb 2009: US median yuzed hous pries=165,400$,down 16% from Feb 2008 (Reelters Asso)
down 25% from 2006 yeer meen
Nu hous median pries=200,900$ in Feb 2009
Kalif: median yuzed hous pries =224,000$, down 41% from Feb 2008 (DataQuik)
down 53.7% from peek (June 2007)
median =247,590$, down from 418,260 in 08 (reelters assos)
San Fran: median hous pries =295,000$, down 45% from Feb 2008 (DataQuik)
Vegas meen yuzed hous pries=155,603$, down 36.9% from 2008
******** Feb 2009...Kase-shiller report (28 Apr 2009)
20-sitee index down 18.6% from Feb 2008, down 31% from peek (June 06)
bak tu 2002 pries
sitee 1-yr down from peek
Fenix 35.2% 50.8%
Vegas 31.7% 48.4%
San Fran 31.0% 44.9%
Miami 29.5% 45.1%
LA 24.1% 40.4%
Detroit 23.6% 41.3%
Tampa 23.0% 39.0%
San Diego 22.9% 41.2%
Minneapolis 20.3% 32.0%
Wash DC 19.2% 33.1%
Seatel, Wash 15.4%
******** Jan 2009...Kase-shiller report (31 Mar 2009)
20-sitee index down 19.0% from Jan 2008, down 29% from peek
Bak tu Sep 2003 pries (peek index=206.52, July 2006)
down
sitee 1-yr down from peek
Fenix 35.0% 48.5%
Vegas 32.5% 46.5
San Fran 32.4% 43.1
Miami 29.4% 43.4
LA 25.8% 39.2
San Diego 24.9% 40.8
Tampa 23.3% 37.3
Detroit 22.6% 39.0
Minneapolis 20.4% 29.8
Wash DC 19.3% 31.5
Shekago 16.4% 22.4
Seatel 15.0% 19.7
Atlanta 14.3%
Portland 14.0%
NYS 9.6%
Sharlot, NK 8.2%
Boston 7.5% 17.4%
*****
Jan 2009:
USA median yuzed hous sale pries=170,300$ (Nat asso reelters)
down 14.8% from Jan 2008
Kalifornya median yuzed hous sale pries=224,000$
down 41% from 383,000$ in Jan 2008
bak tu Mae 2001
South Kalif yuzed hous sale pries=250,000$, down 50% from peek (505,000$)
bak tu Feb 2002 pries
Vegas median yuzed hous sale pries=160,000$, down 36% from 2008
***** 2008 yeer results
2008: US hous pries down 18.5% (Kase-Shiller 20-sitee index)
down 27% from peek
2008: US hous pries down 11.6% tu 192,119$ (Zillo, 3 Feb 2009)
Bak tu 2003 pries
2008: US yuzed hous pries down 12% (Nashunal Ass av Reelters)
2008: Kape Koral, Flor hous pries down 50.8% in 2008 tu 111,000$
2008, quarter 4: median yuzed hous pries=180,100$, down 12.4% from 2007
(NAR)
Des 2008: Detroit median yuzed hous pries=7,500$
******* Des 2008: pries tibits: Kase-Shiller
(out 24 Feb 2009)
20-sitee index down 18.5% from 2007, 27% from peek,July 2006
(down 29 months in a roe)
pries bak tu Feb 2004
1 yeer drop from Des 2007
Fenix 34.0%
Vegas 33.0%
San Fran 31.2%
Miami 28.8%
LA 26.4%
San Diego 24.8%
Tampa 22.0%
Detroit 21.7%
Wash DC 19.2%
Minneapol 18.4%
Chicago 14.3%
Seeato 13.4%
******* Nov 2008: pries tibits: Kase-Shiller
November 2008 (out 27 Jan 2009)
20-sitee index down 18.2% from Nov 2007, 25.1% from peek,July 2006
(down 28 months in a roe)
pries bak tu Feb 2004
1 yeer drop for Nov 2008
Fenix 32.9%
Vegas 31.6%
San Fran 30,8%
Miami 28.7%
LA 26.9%
San Diego 25.8%
Tampa 20.9%
Detroit 20.7%
Wash DC 19.4%
Shekago 12.5%
Atlanta 11.2%
Nu York 8.6%
***
Nov 2008 from Radar Lojik:
Kost: $/square foot
San Fran down 36.8% from 2007
Fenix 34.6%
Vegas 32.4%
****** 2008 hous pries...down
from 2007 from peek
kalifornya 26.9% 42%
Nevada 22.8% 39%
Arazona 19.0% 33%
Florida 18.2% 33%
Rode Ieland 13.7%
****** des 2008: yuzed hous sales pries=175,400 $, down 15.3% from 2007 (NAR)
biggest % drop in rekords that go bak tu 1968
9 Jan 2009: Detroit hav 709 houses listed for 3,000$ or less
Des 2008: Metro Detroit median hous pries=57,000$
down 46.3% from 2007
Kalif hous pries=249,000$, down 38% from 2007...bak tu Feb 2002
South Kalif hous pries=278,000$, down 44% from 2007... Aug 2002
******* pries tibits: Kase-Shiller
Oktober 2008 (out 30 Des 2008)
Nashunal index down 25% from Mar 2006...bak tu March 2004 pries
20-sitee index down 18% from Okt 2007, 23.4% from peek,July 2006
10-sitee index down 19.1%
1 yeer drop for Okt 2008
Fenix 32.7%
Vegas 31.7%
San Fran 31.0%
Miami 29.0%
LA 27.9%
San Diego 26.7%
Detroit 20.4%
Tampa 19.8%
Wash DC 18.7%
Minn Min 16.3%
Shekago 10.8%
Atlanta 10.5%
Seato 10.2%
Boston 6.0%
Denver 5.2%
Dallas 3.0%
******
Des 2008: median yuzed hous pries
Vegas: down 100,000$ in 18 months
South Kalif: 278,000$, down 35% from 2007
Nov 2008: USA median yuzed hous pries=181,300$, down 13.2% from 2007.
was 208,000$ in Nov 2007 (Nashunal Reelter assos, 23 Des 2008)
drop=26,700$
******* pries tibits: Kase-Shiller, 2008, quarter 3 (july-Sep)
Nashunal index down 21% from peek
hous value down 17.4% from 2007 (20 sitee index)
down 21.8% from peek in July 2006
10-sitee down 18.6%, down 23.4% from peek in June 2006
*****
29 Aug 08: Hous in Kompton, Kalif (LA kountee)
Sold on 27 Sep 07 for 340,000$
now for sale pries=97,900$, down 71% in 1 yeer (no offers as yet)
13 Aug 08: Hous in Detroit sold for 1$ & took 19 daes tu find a bier
prior sale=65,000$ in Nov 2006
Hous was empty. Kumpanee borded it up, but sumwon stold the bords
also stold the doors, lites, kitchen sink
Banker was so desperat tu sell hous, it pae realter 3,500$ & pae
bier's kloes kosts.
realter sae bier plan tu pae kash.
Detroit hav 2 other houses for sale at 1$
***
09 Aug 08: Ed McMahon kut asking pries on his hous bi 1.9 milyun $
2.15 mil belo original ask pries
for sale 537 daes so far
hi pries sitees (hi kost) Okt 2008
weer median pries zip kode
1. Fisher Ieland, Flor 3,850,000$ 33109
2. Alpine, NJ 3,590,000$ 07620
3. Nassau, NY 3,000,000$ 11765
4. Nuport Koest, Kalif 2,800,000$ 92657
5. Watermill, NY 2,720,000$ 11976
6. Atherton, Kalif 2,700,000$ 94027
7. Santa Barbara,Kalif 2,700,000$ 93108
8. Wainskot, NY 2,560,000$ 11975
9. Rancho Santa Fe, Kal 2,470,000$ 92067
10. Beverly Hills, Kalif 2,410,000$ 90210
***
weer median pries med pri/med HH inkum
11. La Jolla, Kalif 1,841,667$ 36.8
12. San Mateo, Kalif 1,366,475$
13. Santa Monika, Kalif 1,050,000$ 17.1
14. Berkelee, Kalif 752,500$ 14.7
15. Hawthorn, Kalif 585,700$ 14.6
16. Passaik, Nu Jersee 385,300$ 13.3
17. Kambridj, Mass 587,300$ 11.4
18. Patterson, Nu Jers 351,500$ 11.1
19. W Palm Beech, Flor 318,300$ 7.0
20. Alexandria, Virjinya 539,200$ 6.7
***
21. Pompano B, Flor 279,500$ 6.6
22. Skokie, Ill 234,600$ 6.1
********* cheep hous pries
10 Sep 08...Su Sitee, Iowa...median=133,459$
hous sales price, all houses, bi yeer
(nu + yuzed)
USA median hous value (www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/....)
konstant 2000 $ then $
1940 30,600$ 2,938$
1950 44,600$ 7,354
1960 58,600$ 11,900
1970 65,300$ 17,000
1980 93,400$ 47,200
1990 101,100$ 79,200
1999 117,600$ 113,100
2000 119,600$ 119,600
2005 188,994$ 213,900
2006 193,253 226,000 Bubbel peek
2007 183,871 223,800
2008 183,300
**** hous price **
median hous pries in Kalifornya:
1999 178,160$
2005 548,400
2006 472,000
Des 2007...402,000$, down 15% from 2006 (DataQuick sae so)
**** hous price ***** all houses...pries ratio ***********
rasheo av median home pries tu median houshold inkum (national)
old banker rule-av-thumb: max hous yu kan afford=3 times yer inkum B4 tax
1970 2.6
1972 2.4
1975 3.2
1980 3.8
1985 3.5
1990 4.2
1995 4.0
2000 3.9
2005 4.7
2006 8 (1 web site sed so)
***** trivia: 2007: 17 milyun US housholds pae >=half theer inkum for hous
Banker rule: max yu pae tu morgage banker=25% av yer inkum
(PITI=prinsapal+interest+taxes+inshuer)
affordability down kauz reel wages after inflation go DOWN from 2000 thru 2006
& hous pries go up beyond the ski.
***** Singel-famlee median hous pries: (from sales av yuzed houses)
2000=154,563
2006=221,900
2007, quarter 2=223,800$
***** Nashunal Assoc av reelaters home affordability index
number=% av folks that liv theer hu kan afford a median pries hous
bigger %=more folks kan afford tu bi a hous
data for yeer 2000...US averaej=62.8%
baddest:
San Fransisko, Kalif 10.3%
San Jose Kalif 18.3
San Diego Kalif 30.1
Portland Oregon 32.9
Orange Kountee Kalif 41.3
LA-riverside Kalif 57.3
----------
good:
Minneapolis Minn 78.4%
Oklahoma Sit Okla 77.5
Cincinnati Ohio 76.7
Tampa Flor 76.5
Buffalo NY 75.4
***** 2006 madness...hous afford=nu lo (% av folks hu kan afford a meen hous)
Orange Kountee Kalif 2.5% (Aug 06)
3.2% (20 Nov 06)
Vegas: 14%
San Fran:2.7% av sitee teechers kan afford median-pries home in San Fran
***** Kalifornya reelaters assos hav diff rules
em assume 10% down & adjustabel lone (NOT std fixed-rate)
Santa Barbara 14% kan afford tu bi a hous
LA 15%
San Fransisko 17%
***** hi kost sitees, 26 Okt 2006
San Fransisko =689,000$
Orange Kountee=657,000$
San Diego 584,000$
Honolulu 529,000$
**** hous price ********** Nu hous sales pries ***********
USA nu hous pries
yeer number median pries
1963 sell 18,000
1965 20,000
1970 23,400
2000 166,000
2005 1,280,000 219,600
2006 1,060,000 245,300
2007 774,000 246,900 (sales down 26.4% from 2006)
**** Okt 2008, USA nu hous median pries=218,00$, down 7% from 2007
**** Sep 2008, Vegas nu hous median pries=251,000$, down 20% from 2007
**** Aug 2008, nu hous sales
sales rate= 460,000/yeer (17 yeer lo)
meen pries= 221,900$ (down 5.5% from July)
**** Des 2007, nu hous sales
median pries=219,200, down 10.4% from Des 2006
"inventory" 9.6 months suppli for sale
************* Yuzed hous sales pries ***********
USA yuzed hous pries
(yuzed..."previously owned" or "existing homes" in modern krat speek)
******** late nuz
2010 Jun 2010, median yuzed hous pries=183,700$ (realters gruep)
up 1% from 2009
2010 Feb 2010, median yuzed hous pries=165,100$ (realters gruep)
down 2% from 2009
for sale=3.59 milyun=8.6 months
2009, q2 US yuzed hous median pries=174,100$, down 15.6% from 2008 (reelters assos)
******** old nuz
Washington DC...asking pries for yuzed hous
1918 4,821$
1920 6,296
1925 7,809
1930 7,146
1933 5,759
1935 6,296
1940 6,558
1945 10,131
1947 12,309
****** USA yuzed hous median sales pries (US sensus buro)
1970 23,000$
1975 35,300
1980 62,200
1985 75,500
1990 78,500
1992 99,700
1993 103,100
1994 107,200
1995 110,500
1996 115,800
1997 121,800
1998 128,400
1999 133,300
2000 139,000
2004 185,200 (195,400 from realtor.com)
2005 213,900 (219,600)
2006 (221,900)
***** median yuzed hous pries
***** selekted sitees, neer top av hous bubbel...2006, quarter 3
San Fransisko, Kalif 749,400$ Yungstown, Ohio 86,000
San Jose Kalif 747,400 South Bend, Ind 96,000
Orange Kountee Kalif 705,000 Buffalo NY 106,000
San Diego Kalif 601,900 Springfeeld Ill 113,200
Honolulu Hawaii 635,000 Pittsberg Penn 120,400
LA Kalif 582,000 Dayton Ohio 120,600
NYS-wite Plane NY 558,600 Indianapol Ind 122,400
NYS-long IelandNY 477,700
NYS-Suffix NY 471,400
Bridjport Konn 466,600
Newark NJ 455,400
Washington DC 431,900
Edisun NJ 415,100
Boston Mass 412,300
Seattle Wash 372,200
Bolder Kolo 366,800
Miami Flor 365,100
Reno Nev 341,000
Las Vegas, Nev 318,000
USA yuzed hous pries tibit
note: NAR="Nashunal Assos av Reelters"
Des 2008: median USA yuzed hous sale pries=175,400$
down 15.3% from 2007
quarter 3, 2008 NAR sae US median yuzed hous pries=200,500$
down 9% from 2007
Sep 2008: Vegas meen yuzed home sales pries=189,000$, down 28% from 2007
***** quarter 4 2006
Nashunal assos av reelters (www.realtor.com/research.nsf/files/....)
pries= 219,300$...down 2.7% from 05
num sell= 6,240,000/yeer (adjusted)...down 10.1% from 05
20. refinance
redu morgage & take munee outta hous tu spend
In the old daes, the purpus av refinans the morgage was tu take
advantage av loer % interest tu redues monthly paement or pae off
lone erlee. But from yeer 2000 onward, old rules fli out the windo.
2006: US took 318 bilyun $ outta theer houses tu spend (Freddee Mak)
+ 146.2 Bilyun for home equity line av kredit (Frderal Rezerv)
2000-2007: yu-all took bout 4 trilyun $ outta homes & spend all av it
Now that hous prieses drop, many av yu R in trubel...yu oe
more than yu kood get if yu sell hous (assume yu KAN sell it).
Rent: 37,728,276 famlees rent (Sensus Buro, 2009)
21. home sales rate
("housing sales" in krat speek)
(www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf)
sales rate...late tibits:
***** trivia: US hav 75 milyun housholds
March 2010: 32% av hous sells was at a loss (< wot seller paed for it)
********* 2008 yuzed hous sales=4.9 milyun (out 26 Jan 09)
down 13% from 2007...loest sins 1997
2008: 20% av sales=forkloesed & 11%=short sales (Zillo)
23 Jun 2008: Palm Beech Kountee: longest for sale=2,341 daes (6.4 yeers)
18 Jun 2008: Fannee Mae predikt total US 2008 home sales tu be 5.29 milyun
reelters predikt:
2008: Nu hous sales=529,000, 2009=595,000
home sales rate...all houses
June 07...median sales pries is down 3.2% from june 06
Sep 07...houses for sale: 10.5 months at latest sales rate
Sep 07...South Kalifornya: sales down 49% from 06
Vegas: sales down 43%...24.5 months suppli for sale
Orlando: first 8 months: sales down 55% from 2006; suppli=30 months
Jan 08...Orange Kountee, Kalif:sales down 46.4% from 2007
pries down 13.3% tu 520,000$
6-kountees in South Kal: sales down 50% from Jan 07
Des 08...Kalifornya: 58% av hous sales=forkloesed
home sales rate...nu houses
(www.census.gov/newhomesales) kum out last thurs av eech month
(www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf)
www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
yr number sold meen pries
2000 820,000
2001 900,000
2002 950,000
2003 1,100,000
2004 1,200,000
2005 1,280,000 219,600
2006 1,060,000 245,300
2007 774,000 246,900$ sales down 26.4%
2008 482,000 down 37.8% from 2007
nu home sales tibits
*** nu hous sales...www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
July2010: (25 Aug 10)
nu hous sales=276,000=rekord lo, down 12.4% from June
down 32.4% from 2009
Mae 2010: (kommers dept, 23 Jun 2010)
nu singel-famllee sales=267,000 (rekord lo)=36.7% belo Apr 10
(originally reported as 300,000, revised in July 2010)
=20.6% belo Mae 2009
=down 78% from July 2005
median pries=200,500$, down 9.6% from Mae 2009
for sale=213,000=8.5 months
Apr 2010: revised down from 504,000 tu 422,000 (July)
2009: US kommers dept hav 46 yeers av data (sins 1963)
Nov 2009: US nu singel-famlee, hous sales=355,000/yeer (23 Des 09)
down 9.0% from Nov 08
median pries=217,400$
for sale=235,000=7.9 months
Okt 2009: US nu singel-famlee, hous sales=430,000/yeer (25 Nov 09)
up 5.1% from 2008
median pries=212,200$
for sale=239,000=6.7 months
Jul 2009: US nu singel-famlee, hous sales=433,000/yeer (26 Aug 09)
down 13.4% from 2008
median pries=210,100$
Jun 2009: US nu singel-famlee, hous sales=384,000/yeer (24 Jul 09)
sales down 21.3% from June 09 & down 72.4% from 2005
median pries=206,200$ (down 6% from Mae09)
for sale=8.8 months
median time tu sell a nu hous=11.8 months
Mae 2009: US nu singel-famlee, hous sales=342,000/yeer (24 Jun 09)
sales down 32.8% from Mae 08
median pries=221,600$
for sale=10.2 months
***** 2008 yeer nu home sales...482,000, down 37.8% from 776,000 in 2007
yuzed home sales
("existing home" or "resold" or "pre-oened" in krat speek)
(www.realtor.org/research.nsf/files/ehsreport....)
(www.realtor.org/press_room/new:.... )
for sale months
number sold meen pries "inventory" "supply"
2004 6,784,000 185,200$ 2,244,000 4.3
2005 7,072,000 208,700 2,846,000 4.5
2006 6,478,000 218,900 3,450,000 6.5
2007 5,652,000 208,400 3,910,000 9.6
2007 sales down 12.8% from 2006
median pries down 6.0 %
singel-famlee home:sales=4.31 milyun (down 21.6% from 2006)
7 Sep 2006: National Association av Reelters (NAR) loer its predikt
av home sales in 2006...nu ges=sales drop 7.6%.
(prior predikt sed 7% more sales in 2006)
reel 2006 sales down 8.4% from 2005
yuzed home sales...tibits=late nuz
July2010: USA sold=3.83 milyun, down 27.2% from June
loest sins 1999, down 25.5% from 2009
Jun 2010: USA sold=5.37 milyun, down 5.1% from Mae
Mae 2010: USA sold=5.66 milyun, down 2.2% from April
Apr 2010: USA sold=5.78 milyun
Feb 2010: USA yuzed hous sales=5.02 milyun, down 0.6% from Jan 2010
** 2009
Mae 2009: USA yuzed hous sales=up 2.4% from Apr (nat ass av reelters)
down 3.6% from Mae 2008
pries down 17% from Mae 08
Mar 2009: USA yuzed hous sales=4.57 milyun/yeer (nat ass av reelters)
median pries=175,000$, down 12.4% from 2008
Feb 2009: USA yuzed hous sales=4.71 milyun/yeer (nat ass av reelters)
median pries=168,200$
Jan 2009: USA yuzed hous sales=4.49 milyun/yeer (nat ass av reelters)
down 8.6% from Jan 2008...12 yeer lo
for sale=3.6 milyun...9.6 months
median pries=170,300$, down 14.8% from 199,800 in Jan 08
Jan 2009: USA: 31% av sales="distressed" (forkloesed or in default)
Madera, Kalif: 54.6% R "distressed"
********* 2008 yuzed hous sales=4.9 milyun (out 26 Jan 09)
Des 2008: USA yuzed hous sales=4.74 milyun/yeer
Nov 2008: USA yuzed hous sales 4.45 milyun/yeer, down 8.6% from Okt
17 yeer lo
Nov 2008: Vegas singel-famlee hous sales down 19.7% from Okt 08
Okt 2008: (reelter org, 24 Nov 2008) US yuzed hous sales
4.98 milyun/yeer, down 3.1% from Sep 08
median pries=183,000$, down 11.3% from Okt 2007
for sale=4.23 milyun=10.2 months
Sep 2008: (reelter org, 24 Okt 2008) US yuzed hous sales
adjusted yeer rate=5.18 milyun/yeer, up 5.5 % from Aug 08
up 1.4% from Sep 2007
forkloesed=40% av sales
Sep 2008: Kalifornya: 51% av yuzed houses sold=forkloesed
Aug 2008: USA: sold=4.91 milyun, down 11 % from Aug 2007
sales down 32% from hi in Sep 2005
pries down 9.5% from 2007
July08: USA yused hous sales rate=5.0 milyun/yeer (reelter org)
down 13.2% from july 2007
for sale=4.67 milyun=11.2 months (hiest sins 1968)
July08: Vegas yuzed hous sales=2,592
74% R forkloesed & 9% R short sale
for sale=23,423=9 months
pries=220,000$, down 25.4% from 2007
Quarter 2 2008 USA yuzed hous sales down 16.3% (reelter assos)
"10 yeer lo"
Quarter 2 2008: Stokton, Kalif: 63.4 hous sales was at a loss (Zillo)
57.7% was forkloesed
Jun 08: USA: forkloesed houses=17% av yuzed home sales
Jun 08: USA: sales rate=4.86 milyun/yeer (realters gruep, 25 July 08)
down 2.5% from mae 08, down 15.5% from june 2007
for sale=4.49 milyun=11.1 months
18 Jun 08: Fannee Mae: 2008 yuzed hous sales tu be 4.76 milyun
Mae 08: Yuzed home sales (Nashunal Assos av Reelters, 26 June 2008)
USA yuzed hous sales=4.99 milyun/yeer
down 15.9% from 2007 (pries down 6.3%)
for sale=4.49 mil=10.8 months suppli
Mae 2008: Kalif hous sales down 11% from 2007. 38% R forkloesed.
pries down 30% from mae 07
Apr 2008: yuzed hous sales =4.89 mil/yeer...down 17.5% from 2007 (Nat Assos av Reelters)
median pries=202,300$ (up 8% from 2007)
for sale=4.55 mil...11.2 months (nu hi)
(www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/8282378049d...)
Mar 2008: USA yuzed hous sales =4.94 mil/yeer
Mar 2008: realters Assos sae Kalif hav 17 months yuzed homes on the market.
other soerses sae 4.2 yeers for sale
Feb 08 yuzed hous sales from Nashunal assos av realters (out on 24 Mar 08)
5.03 milyun/yeer...down 23.8% from 6.60 mil in Feb 2007
suppli=4.03 milyun=9.6 months (was 10.2 months in Jan)
Singel famlee sales=4.47 mil/yr, down 22.9% from Feb 2007
median sales pries=193,900$ (down 8.7% from Feb 2007)
Jan 2008: yuzed home sales rate=4.89 milyun/yeer
down 23.4% from 6.44 mil in Jan 2007
median pries=201,100$, down 4.6 % from Jan 2007
for sale=4.19 milyun...10.3 months
***** yuzed hous...spend 201,000 $, yu kan get
Rochester NY: nu 2,100 sq ft hous on 0.5 akers
Stokton, Kal: bi 1,215 sq ft hous
DC area : 500sq ft 1-bed kondo, but not in a good area
LA area : if yu find a slum, yu mite find a 500 sq ft
100-yr old shak bout tu fall down (pries is for the land)
22. hous size
******* tidbit: hous size (sq ft) per persun up 218% from 1950 tu 2008
averaej hous size, United States (USA)
1950 983 sq ft
1970 1500
1975 1600
1995 1686
2004 2400
2006 2500
***** hous size...NU singel-famlee hous (just-bilded hous)
1974 1560 square ft
1978 1750
1980 1600
1985 1600
1990 1850
1995 1900
2000 2000
2006 2248
2007 2479
2008 ????
2009 2100
note...averaej famlee size dekreezed from 3.14 tu 2.72 persons (1970-2006)
"famlee" inklude singels (non wed) hu liv alone
meen hous size=5.4 rooms
# rooms num houses (1995)
1 862,000
2 1,422,000
3 10,166,000
4 20,789,000
5 24,328,000
6 22,151,000
7 14,183,000
8+ 15,555,000
2005...Association av home Bilders "shokase home" is 5,950 sq ft
2005...20% av nu houses R 3000+ sq ft...so big yu gotta hire kleener
23. hous spend
("hous investment" or "housing GDP" in krat speek)
"consumer expenditures" in guvt krat
****** hous spend
15% av home oeners spend >50% av yer inkum on the hous (Sep 2008)
=7.5 milyun
guvt sae yu R "finanshally burdened" if spend > 30% av inkum on hous
Sep 2008: 38% av homeoeners R "finanshally burdened"
****** hous spend
Guvt inklude hous spend as part av USA GDP
resent peek=808 bilyun $/yeer in quarter 2 2006
latest: quarter 2 2008...down 38% from 2006=down 305 bilyun $
drop= bout 1,000$/(persun-yeer)
****** guvt hous spend rules:
Guvt kount kost tu bild nu houses, maentaen old, home impruev, applianses,
& reelter kosts.
****** Dif guvt vershun=morgage paements+property tax+inshuer+ utilitees.
Spend on all "occupied housing units"
yeer bilyun $
2003 862
2006 808
2008 503 (estimate)
24. take over
07 Nov 2008: 2 Trilyun $...book value av kumpanees the Feds took over
or bi 80+% av its shares tu prevent it from go bankrupt
Zampel: Fannee Mae, Fredee Mak, AIG inshuer
Dont kount kumpanees guvt let go bankrupt (dont bael out)
25. underwater
Underwater=yu oe more on morgage than yu kan get if yu sell hous
also "upside down", "negativ equity"
"lone-tu-value raesho > 100%"
underwater tibit
Jul 2010: USA: 30.6% av 48.2 milyun hu hav a morgage R underwater
21.8% av 48.24 milyun "oener-okkupied" houses R underwater
Mae 2010: Vegas: 75 % R underwater
Fenix: 58 %
Florida: 48%
Mar 2010: 25% av morgages R underwater (Wall Street Jernel)
Nov 2009: 23% av morgages R underwater (Wall Street Jernel)
=10.7 milyun
Sep 2009: 15.2 milyun in USA R underwater...23%
Vegas: 69.5% underwater
06 Aug 2009(as av Mar 2009): 26% av US "homeoeners" R underwater (Doitch Bank)
=14 milyun houses
predikt 48% in 2011
Kalif 42%
Vegas 81% underwater, projeked tu go tu 90%
Fenix 68%
Mersed, Kalif 85%
15 Mae 2009: 20.4 milyun US houses R underwater=21.9% av "housing units"
(Zillo)
Mar 09: Vegas: 58.2% (if hous pries go down 5%, will be 62%)
Feb 2009: 30% av boomers (aej=45-54) R underwater on theer hous
21 Jan 09: zip kode 95931 (Mountin Hous, Kalif): 88.7% av houses R underwater
89166 (Vegas) 87.1% underwater
Jan 09: if yu bied a hous in last 5 yeers: 41.2% R underwater (Zillo)
******* 2008 yeer end
USA: 8.3 milyun US morgages R underwater
Des 2008 (out 14 Jan 09)
Kalifornya forkloesed hous averaej 180,000$ underwater
31 Des 2008: 20% av morgages R underwater=8.3 milyun (Amerikan Korelojik)
inkreez bi 230,000/month
Nevada: 50% av morgages R underwater
2.2 milyun hav < 5% equity
out on 4 Mar 2009
**** guvt sae US hav 75.5 milyun "home oeners" (Okt 2008)
2006: 4% av US houholds R underwater
2007: 6%
Sep 2008: 18% ...7.5 milyun morgages (Kore Lojik, 30 Okt 08)
Jan 2009: 17.6% (Zillo)
Vegas: 61.4% underwater
*******
15 Des 2008: USA: 11.7 milyun morgages underwater (Zillo)
14.3% av homeoeners R underwater
28 Nov 2008: USA: 12 milyun morgages underwater (Martin Feldstein)
=23% av morgages
11 Nov 2008: most under=Mountin Hous, Kalif...90% R underwater
averaej under=122,000$
31 Okt 2008: USA: 18% av houses R underwater=7.63 milyun
Nevada: 50%
Mishigan: 39%
Florida: 29%
Okt 2008: yu hu bi hous in last 5 yeers: 29% R underwater
bout 50% av houses that hav a morgage
**** underwater (Sept 2008)...% av morgages that R underwater
Nevada 47.8%
Michigan 38.6%
Arazona 29.2%
Florida 29.2%
Kaliforn 27.4%
Jorjya 23.2%
Ohio 22.0%
Kolo 18.3%
30 Sep 2008: USA: 7.6 milyun houses under water (First Amer KoreLojik)
**
12 Aug 2008: 45% av houses bot in 2006 down 10+% (Zillo)
33% bied in 2002-2007 R underwater
29% av USA houses R underwater
1 study sae if we hav resesshun in 2008, 40% av morgages will go underwater.
10 Mar 2008: Economy.com sae 8.8 milyun housholds (10% av houses) R underwater
total home morgages=51 milyun, thus 17% R underwater.
& if hous pries fall 20%, will be 13.8 mil underwater.
4 Mar 2008: Goldman Saks estimate 1 trilyun $ av USA morgages underwater.
26. home vakant rate
("unoccupied" in krat speek)
vakant tibits=late nuz
(www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs)
USA hav 129 milyun "housing units" (Jan 2008)
18.6 milyun vakant
Apr 2010: 2 milyun vakant & for sale (Sensus buro)
19 milyun vakant
estimated 4 mil="vakashun or sekond" home av the rich
estimated 1 mil=abandoned & nonlivabel
*********** Vakant: quarter 4, from US Sensus Buro
note: guvt dont inklude forkloesed houses in its stats
yeer Rent vakant "homeoner" vakant
2008 10.1% 2.9%
2007 9.6% 2.8%
2006 9.8% 2.7%
2005 9.6% 2.0%
2004 10.0% 1.8%
2003 10.2% 1.8%
2002 9.3% 1.7%
2001 8.8% 1.8%
2000 7.8% 1.6%
"homeoener" rented
1960 1.2% 8.0%
1970 1.0% 5.4%
1980 1.3% 5.2%
1990 1.7% 7.5%
2000 1.6% 7.9%
2001 1.8% 8.2%
2002 1.7% 9.1
2003 1.7% 9.4
2004 1.8% 10.4
2005 1.57 milyun 2.1% 10.1
2006 2.1 2.7% 9.5
2007 2.5% 10.1
2008, quarter 1... 2.9% 10.1%
vakant...tibits
June 2010: USA: 18.9 milyun vakant houses (US sensus buro)
Nov 2009: 15,950,000 vakant
June 2009: USA: 18.6 milyun vakant
11 Nov 2009: for rent: 14.5% R vakent (sensus buro)
hiest sins it start this data in Jan 1965
"oener okkupied" houses vakant=2.6% (2.8% 1 yr ago)
25 Jul 2009: 18.7 milyun vakant houses in USA (Bloomberg)
=14% av 130.8 "residenses" (Sensus buro)
But guvt sae the "vakansee" rate=2.5% (go figger)
for-rent vakantsee rate=10.6% av 40 milyun "rental yunits"
27 Apr 2009: 19.1 milyun vakant houses in USA (Sensus Buro)
up from 18.6 mil 1 yr ago
guvt sae vakansee rate=2.7% (peek was 2.9% in 2008)
US hav 130.4 mil "homes"
March 2009: 3% av US homes hav ben emptee for 90+ daes
10 Nov 2008: 18.6 milyun homes "are now sitting emptee" (Sensus Buro)
25 Aug 2008: USA hav 6,000,000 valant houses not for sale or rent.
01 Aug 2008: Tampa, Flor hav 31,900 vakant home "sites" (lots).
=51.5 yeers supply at kurrent rate av bild nu houses.
02 July 2008: 1 web site sae 44.5 milyun homes R "next tu" a vakant hous.
& that drop hous value 5,000$ or more
2008 quarter 2: 2.9% av nonrented houses R vakant (Sensus buro)
rented:10.0% R vakant
11 Jun 2008: 2.8% av "housing stok" is vakant & for sale.
rental vakant=9.8% (25% abuv averaej av last 20 yeers)
Orlando: hous vakant=7.4%, rent vakent=11.3%
1 Mar 2008: Kommers Dept sae 200,000 nu houses empty (vakant)
"hiest level in 35 yeers"
370,000 nu houses for sale ??? sumwon liv in nu hous & wanna sell it?????
216,000 houses not yet dun (yu kant muve in yet)
31 Jan 2008: USA: 2.18 milyun vakant houses (Sensus Buro)
1 Jan 2008: Vegas...51% av for sale houses R vakant
Jan 2008: Fenix...49% av houses for sale R vakant
43% "oener okkupied"
that impli 8% rented
Okt 2007 Census Buro sae 2.07 milyun empty houses for sale
Des 2007, USA: vakent houses for sale=750,000
vakant for rent 700,000 "units"
vakant brand nu houses 250,000
26. home value
("real estate assets" in krat speek)
("net stok av residential fixed assets" in guvt krat)
***** "net werth" av all US housholds: (Federal Rezerv Bank)
(net werth="assets minus liabilities")
Peek: June 2007...64.4 Trilyun $
Mae 2010: US homeoeners value=11.95 trilyun $
down 7 Tril $ from bubbel peek av 20 Tril
Des 2008: 51.5 trilyun $, down 11.2 Tril (18%) from 2007
assets=65.7 Tril, down 11.3 tril
***** Value av all houses in USA (Federal Rezerv Bank)
1990 6.26 trilyun $
1995 8.03
2000 11.4
2005 21.0
2006 21.5
2007 20.3
2008 US hous values down 2 trilyun $ in 2008
median hous pries down 21% from peek in 2006
2009: LA down 60.8 bilyun $ in2009 (345.8 bil in 2008)
Sheekago down 49.6 bil
Nu Yoark down 49 bil
Miami 45.9 bil
homeoeners oe 10.60 trilyun $ on morgages ("home morgage liabilities" in krat speek)
****** kompare value with
US GDP =15 trilyun $
munee suppli =15 tril
fed budjet = 3 tril
all US mutual funds =12 tril
Werld GDP 50 tril
Unfunded SS +Medikare=60 tril
Werld reel estate 75 tril
Werld stok+bonds 100 tril
****** histree:
1929-1932: total US hous value down 25.7% (inkum down 41%)
********** value: late tibits
Aug 2008: Kalifornya hous "vlues" down 1.7 trilyun from peek in Apr 2007
13,174,378 housholds*56.9% oen hous=7,496,221 oeners
Apr 2007: peek value=4.480 trilyun$ (median=597,640$)
Aug 08 value=2.76 tril median=368,250$
June 2008: 1 study sed hous pries drop sins bubbel peek=4 trilyun $
Averaej=50,000$/hous
2008, q1: total werth av housholds down 1.7 trilyun $
Total value av all homes down 305 bilyun $
stoks down 555 bilyun $
mutual funds down 400 bil
value trivia: USA hous value at 2006 peek=21 trilyun $=153% av GDP
kompare: Stok bubbel at 2000 peek was 13 trilyun $
stoks lost half that in next 2 yeers
Wot will the hous bubbel drop tu?????
25. walk awae
The homeoener volunteer tu giv bak hous tu banker insted av keep
paeing on the morgage. With many houses werth less than the $ yu oe
on the morgage, this make sens tu many;
also kalled "jinjel mael" or "mael kees tu the bank"
"strategic default".
2008: 588,000 walked awae from theer morgage.